Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Fury at Air Crash Cover-Up Puts Iran’s Leaders Back on Defensive.

• Trump Trade Deal Raises Issue of Trusting China to Deliver.  

• Goldman(GS) Plans to Double China Headcount to 600 in Five Years.

• Most Gulf Equity Markets Gain as Iran Risk Eases: Inside EM.  

• Asian Stocks Look Set for Mixed Start to Week: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks looked set for a mixed session Monday after a decline in U.S. shares following Friday’s lackluster employment report. Australian shares slipped along with futures in South Korea, while contracts in Hong Kong pointed higher. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. U.S. futures inched higher after the S&P 500 dropped from record levels Friday with the latest jobs report delivering mixed signals on the strength of the economy. The yen ticked lower. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.7% as of 8:12 a.m. in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures rose 0.4%. S&P 500 Index futures gained 0.1%. The benchmark fell 0.3% Friday.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Oil Comes Back to Haunt Asian Currencies as Volatility Increases.

• Trusting China, EM Easing, Philippine Volcano Eruption: Eco Day.

• Mnuchin Says Boeing Woes Could Lop a Half-Point from U.S. GDP.

• Citi’s Morse Sees Better Year for Commodities But Flags 7 Risks.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Faces Growing Criticism at Home, Abroad Over Downing of Plane.

• Bets on Global-Growth Rebound Power Stock Gains.

• Philadelphia’s Top Prosecutor Pursues ‘Social,’ Not Actual, Justice.

• America’s Conservative Plurality.

• Manufacturers Increase Perks to Get New Hires to Move.

• Bristol’s Merger With Celgene Is Already Paying Dividends, CEO Says.

• Soleimani’s Latin America Terror.

• ‘Cancel Culture’ Comes to Science.

• Inside Google’s Quest for Millions of Medical Records.

MarketWatch.com:

• Happy New Year! The U.S. economy has entered 2020 ‘with a little more zip’.

Fox News:

• Pelosi insists clinging to impeachment articles worked, says McConnell ‘cover-up’ exposed.

• McCarthy tells Maria what he thinks was behind Pelosi’s gambit.

• US troops in Baghdad see Iran general's threat differently from DC, GOP senator says.

CNBC:

• Trump tells Iranian protesters he stands with them and warns Tehran: ‘The world is watching’.

• ‘Our enemy is here’: Iran protesters demand leaders quit after military admits it shot down plane.

• Start-ups join Google, SpaceX and OneWeb to bring new technologies to space.

• Dell just put out a mammoth 43-inch monitor for traders — and we tried it for a week.

Zero Hedge:   

• What Are The Odds Of No Winner In The Democratic Primaries?

• Universal Basic Income: A Dream Come True For Despots.

• Carter Page Says FBI's SpyGate Is "Just The Tip Of The Iceberg", Hints At Future Legal Action.

• Facebook Glitch Reveals Greta Thunburg's Father Posting As Teenage Climate Activist.

• The Blue-State Exodus Gains Momentum.

• "Death To Liars!" Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing.

• Walmart Testing Robots For Fulfilling Grocery Orders. 

Business Insider:

• How the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water where ships carry $1.2 billion of oil every day, is at the heart of spiraling tensions with Iran.

Seeking Alpha:

• It's 2013 All Over Again. Fast forward to January 2020 and we can see there are no signs of the type of excessive enthusiasm that always accompany the final stages of a blow-off rally. Quite the opposite, in fact, for the latest AAII survey showed that bullish sentiment among its members had fallen by 4% for the week ending January 8 to 33%. This is well below the long-term bullish average of 38%. And it’s certainly well under the types of readings we should be seeing right now if the market was truly vulnerable to a collapse.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.0 +1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.56 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (SJR)/.34

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Dec. is estimated at $0.0B versus $208.8B in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Trade Balance report, China Trade Balance report, UBS Midstream/MLP/Utilities Conference and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.