Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Oil Bounce, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.1 -12.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.74 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.57 -1.05%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.4 -4.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +43
  • Total Put/Call .77 -23.8%
  • NYSE Arms .71 -64.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.78 -4.39%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 634.0 +1.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.50 -2.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.25 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.93 -4.52%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.75 +.06we%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 25.0 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.76 +.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .18 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 84.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.10 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.6 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 +2.0 basis points
  • 7.5% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 15.2% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +125 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -766 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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