Monday, May 18, 2026

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 -.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.1 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +6.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 +3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.3 -1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.1 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 64.6 +.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 -.8
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.1 +.1
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.2 +1.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.6 -9.4
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +25.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 355.29 +1.38:  Growth Rate +28.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.38% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 862.98 +4.63: Growth Rate +118.0% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 19.8 -.7 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 -4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 182.5 +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.9% -2.3 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.60% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.14 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 94.6% (unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 80.6%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -6.1% 2) Lithography/Photonics -5.9% 3) AI Innovation -4.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FN, WYFI, TENX, AEIS, SPIR, NVMI, ORKA, MICC, PWR, VKTX, SMTC, DQ, SMTC, BW, LEU, ZVRA, MTSI, GEV, CRWV, ASST, CTGO, FLEX, MWH, HIMX, MTZ, AEVA, FIX, IDR, MXT, NEE, MXL, ONTO, MU, IREN, ENPH, ASX, OKLO, ICHR, FORM, SMR, FLNC, SIMO, CAMT, GLW, ALAB, SYNA, ZLAB, XNDU, ADEA, RGTI, MP, MOD, STRL, EIKN, LITE, CBIO, VICR, STX, WOLF, STX, LI, INFQ, POWL, CBIO, MPLT, NVTS, AVTX, AMSC, AAOI, CRDO, RVI, SEDG, NBIS, STRO, UMAC, USAR, SGML, POET, LWLG, MRAM, BRUN, OUST, ALMU, GENB, BOT, FCEL and DSGN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VKTX 2) GIS 3) BRUN 4) DLO 5) XLY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) STX 2) GOSS 3) BTM 4) NUAI 5) LABT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLI 3) XLV 4) XLE 5) XBI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +3.1% 2) Medical Equipment +2.4% 3) Computer Services +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RAMP, BRC, BIO, ZETA, BL, RBLX, ZS, NOW, VCYT, DXYZ, MDB, VOYG, D, MNDY, BLFS, SAIL, CTSH, YPF, MH, TTAN, OSCR, LPTH, FLY, BLLN, SHAZ, LPTH, AAP, DRVN, CAI, TNDM, MAMA, FCN, RYAAY, STNE, EPAM, NTRA, YSS, EC, VNET, IIIV, HMY, SNOW, PBI, BLKB, LYFT, MDA, DXCM, ZTS, TYL,, VPG, CRWD and SDRL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PBR 2) HIVE 3) D 4) TE 5) SJM 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RAMP 2) CVU 3) BIO 4) BRC 5) NOW
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) KWEB 3) SMH 4) SILJ 5) XLU
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AS)/.31
  • (EXP)/1.59
  • (HD)/3.41 
  • (BEKE)/.95
  • (BILI)/1.16 
After the Close: 
  • (CAVA)/.17
  • (JHX)/.30
  • (KEYS)/2.32
  • (TOLS)/2.58
  • (ZTO)/3.07 
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.5% gain in March. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Venable speaking, Fed's Paulson speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, weekly ADP employment change weekly, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, RBC Healthcare Conference, UBS TMT Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, Deutsche Bank Auto Industry Conference, Deutsche Bank Autos Mobility/Robotics Conference, (VRT) investor meeting, Morgan Stanley Luxury Goods Conference, (XPO) annual meeting, (AMGN) annual meeting, (PYPL) annual meeting, (HWM) annual meeting, (UAL) annual meeting and the B. Riley Investor Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.7% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +.8
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 60.9% of Issues Advancing, 37.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .79 +11.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$99.5M
  • 86 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
  • 51.4% (+2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.6 -2.1
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 45.0% -11.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 25.0% -10.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 32.0% +4.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.3 +.1%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 90.0 -10.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 98.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458. -.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.6 -.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.0 -2.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 12.0 -28.4%
  • Vix 18.4 -.4%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -5.5%

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @CNBC 
  • @MarioNawful
  •  @EricLDaugh
  • @_Qstormrider
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @DiscloseTV 
  • @BurtJonesForGA
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @ScottPeters
  • @HormuzLetter
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @Peoples_Pundit
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 +3.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%.
  • Crude Oil 107.30/bbl. +1.7%
  • Gold 4,495.6 USD/t oz. -1.5% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -.04%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.24 -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.3 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.61% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.15% +12.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 +.5%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.69%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.61%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.93%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (NVDA) and (CASY).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @LaraLogan
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @GenFlynn
  • @FirstSquawk
  • @DiedSuddenly
  • Huge win for health! RFK Jr just explained that doctors will now get paid to take patients OFF unnecessary and harmful medications through a new policy called “deprescribing.” This is the first policy of its kind, and will incentivize doctors to STOP prescribing unnecessary medications. (video)
  • @HormuzLetter
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @nicksortor
  • BREAKING: Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has now CONFIRMED he has commuted Tina Peters’ sentence, saying he believes the election whistleblower’s free speech rights were violated. Polis says the judge “held her speech against her.” Peters will OFFICIALLY be free in just a couple weeks, with a release date of June 1. (video)
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @johnrich
  • @Fa21519230
  • @CathyLathamTX
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @unusual_whales
  • @adamemedia1
  • @CostaKapo
  • “We’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.” Internal AutoZone Memo. (pic)
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • Elon just endorsed it. Gad Saad dropped the hammer on Fox this morning. We now live in a world where: - Rape victims get less sympathy than their rapists - Homeowners get less than the squatters breaking in - American vets get less than illegal migrants - Repeat felons with 186 charges get 200 more “chances” because “society made them do it”. This isn’t kindness. This is suicidal empathy. (video)
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