Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 +.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.1 +1.4%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.36 -2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.3 +1.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 149.6 -.6%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 56.1 -2.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.8 +1.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.4 +1.5
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.80 +2.6
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(484 of 500 reporting) +27.7% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 360.96 +.81: Growth Rate +23.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 889.13 +4.18: Growth Rate +124.6% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 21.0 +.7
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 +6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.81 +1.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.0% +.2 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.8 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% +3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 93.0% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 77.7%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -162 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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