Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• President Trump on Monday declined to say whether he thought the next round of US-Iran talks set for Tuesday in Qatar would lead to a breakthrough. “The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not,” Trump said. “We’re going to find out". 
• Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecasts as flows through the Strait of Hormuz return faster than expected, while strong US supply and weak Chinese demand increase the risk of a surplus. 
• China’s factory activity improved more than expected in June, as booming exports offset cooling growth in the domestic economy. 
• The South Korean government will consider ways to cut atomic power construction times as it looks to ramp up energy supply to meet the demands of AI. 
• President Donald Trump will temporarily lift duties on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco as the administration seeks to aid a struggling farm economy and appease consumer fears over food inflation. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.    
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• FWIW -- The SAVE Act that the House is sending the Senate in the NDAA was already in the Senate and failed to pass. 
• Gold tumbles to Nov '25 lows of $3943, after crashing Yen triggers 162 stops; silver dragged lower too.
• "Unbelievable Damage": 131-Mph Windstorm Snaps Wind Turbines In Half Across South Dakota.
• Something "Unprecedented" Is Taking Place Below The Market's Calm Surface.
• Wait, is the US government suggesting that non-local models are NOT protecting personal privacy.
• Trump raging against crack spreads. Refiners may be short here.
• RFK Jr. Says 1 Million Obamacare Enrollees Lacked Social Security Numbers.
• Rate On China's New Overnight Liquidity Tool Comes Below Estimates, Hints At Imminent Easing.
• House Rules Chair Virginia Foxx: "I dont think $1.15[T] is too much spending" on defense. Says there probably should be more spending in a reconciliation bill.
• DOJ Sues States Over Alleged Failure To Turn Over Food Stamp Data.
• Johnson Says Reconciliation Is The Only Path For The SAVE Act.
• Citizen Vigilante Should Terrify Western Governments.
• Dip-Buyers Pounce, Big-Tech & Black Gold Bounce, Yen Trounced To 40-Year-Lows.                   

• @CNBC

• Japanese yen sinks to weakest level since 1986, keeping intervention risks in focus.
• CNBC Daily Open: An A-grade showing for Alphabet on its Dow debut.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Dow futures are little changed after blue-chip index posts new record close: Live updates.
• Donors gave an estimated $617.2 billion to U.S. charities last year, up 5.7% from the year prior on a blistering stock market rally, according to a Giving USA report released this week. The findings mark the first time yearly giving has topped $600 billion in the 60-year history of the annual philanthropy report, which is published by the Giving USA Foundation. Adjusted for inflation, giving was up 3% year over year. 

• @TheTranscript

• $JPM JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: "Cyber is our biggest risk made worse by AI... I didn't know how much worse by AI. It's, like, really worse.". 

• @WallStEngine

• $AVAV Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $641.6M (Est. $559.1M) ; +133% YoY Adj. EPS: $1.84 (Est. $1.47) Adj. EBITDA: $140.1M; vs $61.6M LY FY Bookings: $2.7B; book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 Funded Backlog: $1.2B FY Guide: Revenue: $2.125B-$2.225B (Est. $2.18B) Adj. EPS: $3.02-$3.34 (Est. $4.00) Adj. EBITDA: $305M-$325M Net Income: $8M-$24M. 
• COMCAST $CMCSA MAY BUILD DATA CENTERS TO CAPITALIZE ON AI GROWTH - REUTERS. 
• Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 Q2 EPS growth of 22% YoY, with AI infrastructure expected to drive nearly 60% of total earnings growth. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 -.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%. 
• Crude Oil 70.56/bbl. -.3% 
• Gold 3,980.50 USD/t oz. -1.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.41 +.19%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.73 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.6 +1.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.37% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.90% +5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.42%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.