Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 -.5%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.3 +.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.35 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.5 -1.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 148.7 -.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.8 -5.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.6 -1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 +10.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.50 +5.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +27.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 361.35 +.39:  Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.1 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 889.95 +.83: Growth Rate +124.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.9 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 191.36 +1.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.5% +1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.4% (-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 75.3%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +710 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -112 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long