Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.3 -.1%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.8 -1.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +3.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.27 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.0 -.9%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 140.47 -1.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 52.3 +.1%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -2.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.5 -1.2
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.1 +.4
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.7
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.1% -2.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.75 +1.47: Growth Rate +24.7% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.52% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 935.83 +16.68: Growth Rate +80.5% +3.3 percentage points, P/E 18.3 -.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 27.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.7 -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.20 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.1% -1.7 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.51% +5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 -9.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 16th FOMC meeting: 51.6% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 43.8%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +720 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/biotech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment