Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 -.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +7.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.4 +.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 151.5 -.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 54.8 -1.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.2
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 -1.0
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.5 -.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.2 +1.3
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +27.9% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.05 +.80: Growth Rate +23.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 898.61 +4.60: Growth Rate +73.3% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -28.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 39.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.0 +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% -.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.55% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 85.8% (+.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 57.3%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,720 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -165 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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