Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 +1.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.1 +.7%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.24 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.24 +.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 142.2 +1.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 54.4 +4.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.9
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.8 +2.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.1 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.8 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 500 reporting) +16.5% +.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.17 -.58: Growth Rate +24.5% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.5% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 845.33 -n/a: Growth Rate +63.0% -n/a, P/E 20.0 +n/a
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 30.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.6 -3.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.20 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.7% +.6 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.49% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -8.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 16th FOMC meeting: 51.6% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 43.8%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -113 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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