Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 +.5%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.3 -.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.17 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.1 -.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 141.2 -.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 52.7 -4.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.4 +3.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.4 +13.5
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.8 +.4
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.7 -3.7
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +188.8% +174.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.94 +.53: Growth Rate +24.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.53% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 851.48 +5.24: Growth Rate +64.2% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 unch.
- US Yield Curve 27.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 170.80 +1.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.88 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 16.2% +1.4 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% -.5 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 +6.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 16th FOMC meeting: 47.8% (-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 45.7%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,106 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -111 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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