Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 -1.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 -1.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.23 -8.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -2.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 139.6 -3.8%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 48.4 -1.1%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.3
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.1 -1.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -3.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.5 +5.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.6 -1.1
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.79 +.68: Growth Rate +24.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.7
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.50% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 912.83 +4.60: Growth Rate +76.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 +1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +18.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.3 -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -9.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% +1.3 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -11.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 71.7%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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