Monday, June 15, 2026

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Calming Inflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 -1.4%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 -1.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.23 -8.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -2.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.6 -3.8%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 48.4 -1.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.3
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.1 -1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -3.4
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.5 +5.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.6 -1.1
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.79 +.68:  Growth Rate +24.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.7
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.50% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 912.83 +4.60: Growth Rate +76.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 +1.0 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +18.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.3 -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -9.2%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% +1.3 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -11.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 71.7%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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