Sunday, September 30, 2018

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:          
  • Asian Stocks See a Muted Start; Oil Ticks Higher. Stocks in Asia kicked off the final quarter in muted fashion, in a holiday-affected start to the week. Volumes are likely to be thin Monday, with Labor Day in Australia, Hong Kong’s market shut and China’s closed through Oct. 7. Japan’s two main equity benchmarks opened mixed, while holiday-hit Australian stocks started with small losses, and Korea’s benchmark was up. S&P 500 Index futures climbed after the benchmark saw the best quarter since 2013. Oil extended gains on concern of an impending supply crunch. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher, to 3.07 percent. The Canadian dollar rose as the U.S. and Canada engaged in last-minute negotiations to update Nafta by Sunday’s deadline. Nikkei 225 rose 0.1 percent and Topix Index fell 0.3 percent. Kospi gained 0.3 percent. S&P 500 Index futures gained 0.3 percent with the benchmark closing flat on Friday.
MarketWatch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.25 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 9.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.89 unch.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.25%
  • S&P 500 futures +.37%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.47%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (CALM)/.45
After the Close:
  • (SFIX)/.04
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in July. 
  • ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 61.3 in August.
  • ISM Prices Paid for September is estimated to fall to 71.4 versus 72.1 in August.
Afternoon
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. are estimated to rise to 16.9M versus 16.6M in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Eurozone PMI report, Eurozone Unemployment Rate report, Cantor Fitzgerald Healthcare Conference and the (BABA) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on technical buying, diminishing trade war fears, less emerging markets currency/debt angst, stable long-term rates, yen weakness and oil gains. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Today's Headlines

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (HAS), (ILMN), (CERN), (XRAY), (BDX), (DHR), (TMO), (URI), (VMC), (JEC) and (COWN).
  • Had bearish commentary on (TRUP).
Zero Hedge:

Friday, September 28, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,913.98 -.54%

























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 26,458.30 -1.07%
  • NASDAQ 8,046.35 +.74%
  • Russell 2000 1,696.57 -.92%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.95 -1.60%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 171.11 -1.18%
  • Wilshire 5000 30,189.60 -.58%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,568.32 +.64%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,247.47 -1.73%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 554.55 -2.16%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.7162 +2.36%
  • NYSE Technology 1,911.84 +.78%
  • Transports 11,377.30 -1.47%
  • Utilities 719.86 -1.37%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.45 -3.15%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.99 -.23%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,260.90 -.75%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.62 +.16%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 331,692 -.57%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -101 -265
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 58.82 +17.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 530,366 -2.48%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,228,937 -2.32%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +4.08%
  • OEX Put/Call 10.28 +43.58%
  • ISE Sentiment 142.0 +72.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.46 +60.71%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.66 +6.76%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.22 +4.52%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.56 -2.86% 
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.44 -7.43%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,198.64 -1.67%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.883 Trillion +.63%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$10.545 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 36.2 +13.1%
  • AAII % Bears 31.1 -2.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 195.16 +.78%
  • Crude Oil 73.29 +3.61%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 210.12 +4.96%
  • Natural Gas 3.01 +.70%
  • Heating Oil 235.18 +5.81%
  • Gold 1,191.50 -.83%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 184.20 -.16%
  • Copper 280.40 -1.55%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 300.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.99%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.65 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%
  • Lumber 344.40 +1.11%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 895.74 -1.37%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.63% -82.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 0.4% +20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1382 -7.87%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 75.12 -39.93%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 173.28 -.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.20 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.90 -5.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.60 +2.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/8
  • US Dollar Index 95.11 +.86%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,602.29 +.20%
  • Bitcoin/USD 6,637.89 -.82%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.17 -.27%
  • Yield Curve 23.75 -2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.05% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.153 Trillion -.37%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.78 +3.92%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.99 -3.96%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 267.75 +31.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 8.92 -4.39%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 81.41 -13.46%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.09 -.41%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.32 -4.45%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 143.38 -8.09%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.65 +.20%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 -.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.75 -28.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.56 -3.04%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 386.0 -3.83%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 83.73 +7.13%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 192.89 -3.92%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.707 Trillion -1.13%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,082.30 +.70%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 206,000 +250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.72% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.50 +2.86%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.2 +1.0 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.80% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.88/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,524.0 +7.86%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 853.61 +.24%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 294,463 +3.54%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth unch.
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -1.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Energy +3.2%
  • Biotech +2.8%
  • Oil Service +2.7%
  • Medical Equipment +2.4%
  • Internet +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Tobacco -3.5% 
  • Alt Energy -3.8%
  • Papers -4.0%
  • Banks -4.5%
  • Coal -8.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)
  • BCOR, LGF/A, NVDA, HIIQ, FATE, AIR, COHU, BEAT and VST
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)
  • SPGI, MRTX, MTN, AVLR, RARE, DOVA, LASR, BTU and AAOI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change