Thursday, September 27, 2018

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Currency/Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Oil Gain, Biotech/Airline Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.11 -6.05%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.47 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.78 -4.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.47 +.55%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +1.94%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +6.98%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -40.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.73 -2.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 427.0 -.55%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.33 +.88%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 236.0 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.15 -1.40%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.28 -1.43%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.74 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.50 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.0 -24.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.03 +.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.18% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 22.0 -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.48 USD/Metric Tonne -.84%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.5 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.50 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.3 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 unch.
  • 71.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 72.4% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +300 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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