Monday, September 24, 2018

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.42 +6.34%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.83 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.60 +.26%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.73 +3.92%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +15.0%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -5.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 +30.44%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.54 +1.59%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 -1.53%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.53 +2.55%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.75 +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.51 +2.09%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.0 -1.58%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.66 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.66 +.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.17% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 26.75 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.66%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.9 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.20 +3.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.9 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16+1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 100.0% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -151 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -95 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector long, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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