Monday, October 26, 2020

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -12.2% Below 100-Day Average
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
  • 8.5% of Issues Advancing, 89.4% Declining
  • 9 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
  • 56.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 49.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index -8.0 -326.0 points
  • Vix 31.4 +13.8%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +13.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.68 +52.0%

Sunday, October 25, 2020

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
  MarketWatch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.34 +.%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 301.0 -17.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.0 +.78%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.42%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (AMG)/2.85
  • (HAS)/1.61
  • (HCA)/2.26
  • (SAP)/1.29
  • (OTIS)/.56
After the Close:
  • (BYD)/.20
  • (BRO)/.43
  • (FFIV)/2.37
  • (NXPI)/1.60
  • (TWLO)/-.04
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to .6 versus .79 in Aug.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1025K versus 1011K in Aug.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to fall to 13.5 versus 13.6 in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • (NEE) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Industrial Profits report, Germany IFO Index and the (JAZZ) investor update could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as US election uncertainties/Biden tax hike proposals, global virus fears and global recession worries offset earnings optimism, short-covering and stimulus hopes. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, October 24, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       
 Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (SHOP), (ETSY), (CHWY), (W), (KO), (SFM), (WEC), (XEL) and (ES).
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
 @JkyleBass:
Sacramento Bee:
  • Support for Trump grows among California Latinos, new poll shows. In September, 64% of likely Latino voters said they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while 25% said they would vote for Trump. In this newly released October survey, 57% of likely Latino voters said they would vote for Biden, 33% for Trump. When Trump faced off against Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, 12% of likely Latino voters told PPIC in the October before the election that said they were casting their ballot for Trump, while 71% said they were voting for Clinton.
The Epoch Times:

Friday, October 23, 2020

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,460.82 -.64%




 



















 
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  


Indices
  • DJIA 28,321.13 -1.05%
  • NASDAQ 11,515.50 -1.32%
  • Russell 2000 1,640.62 +.41%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 4516 +3.15%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 185.76 -.11%
  • Wilshire 5000 35,527.42 -.64%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,235.22 -1.47%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,217.72 +.23%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 671.99 -1.35%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,327.58 -.61%
  • NYSE Technology 3,191.34 -2.75%
  • Transports 11,884.69 +1.15%
  • Utilities 892.85 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 48.72 +3.81%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 46.11 +1.09%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,250.92 -.32%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 899.66 +.26%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 422,580 -.21%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 7 -96
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -43.44 -3.08%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 472,797 +.27%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,059,382 -2.48%
  • Total Put/Call .82 +3.80%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.70 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 129.0 +7.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +142.8
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 307.0 +40.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.56 +3.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.17 -15.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.54 +3.68%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.93 -.45%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,778.56 -4.93%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.356 Trillion -.17%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.202 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 35.8 +2.8%
  • AAII % Bears 33.0 -7.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 150.68 -.14%
  • Crude Oil 39.79 -.81%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 113.72 -1.23%
  • Natural Gas 2.97 +10.6%
  • Heating Oil 115.02 -1.35%
  • Gold 1,904.0 -.16%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 190.91 +1.42%
  • Copper 313.95 +2.46%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 292.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.74%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
  • Lumber 516.50 -3.41%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 939.55 +1.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +35.29% +.6 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% +.6 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -3.8 +5.71%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 112.01 -32.3%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 159.37 +.66%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 127.9 -6.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.7 -15.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -2.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/5
  • US Dollar Index 92.77 -.93%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,664.03 +.60%
  • Bitcoin/USD 12,842.71 +14.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.73 +.54%
  • Yield Curve 70.0 +10.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield .84% +10.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.137 Trillion +.36%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.24 -1.17%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 382.73 +.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 +6.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.21 -4.07%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 212.42 -3.62%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.72 -.02%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.83 -2.7%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 93.55 -4.05%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.56 +.17%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75% +3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 13.0 +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -2.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.77 +1.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 526.0 +.34%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 72.86 +.75%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 203.54 -1.16%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 80.75 -1.75 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 68.19 -.13%
  • M1 Money Supply $5.603 Trillion +1.74%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 962.40 +1.20%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 811,250 -2.58%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 5.7% -110.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.80% -1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 794,200 -.59%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 46.6 -1.6 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.9% +70.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.17/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,401.0 -5.15%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,054.34 +.05%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 105.57 +4.78%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 291,935 +.85%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +1.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Airlines +8.6%
  • Social Media +7.0%
  • Oil Service +6.0%
  • Gaming +3.6%
  • Banks +3.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -2.8% 
  • Biotech -2.8%
  • Computer Services -4.5%
  • Road & Rail-4.6%
  • Homebuilding -7.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)
  • MAT, KOD, SNAP, FUBO, X, BEAM, CRNC, BCOV, FTAI, CIT, CLAR, SIVB, BATRK, REPL, GT, GNTX, OZK and FLS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (20)
  • NCNO, EAT, CTXS, THO, VRSN, UNFI, NSTG, LMND, FSLY, FGEN, SLQT, MANH, SDC, SPAQ, WGO, SPCE, RHI, VIR, EHTH  and GBX
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change