Friday, September 22, 2017

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) HMOs -1.6% 2) Steel -.8% 3) Papers -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ICPT 2) FINL 3) FSLR 4) JNPR 5) RHT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VSAR 2) ICPT 3) EXEL 4) RVLT 5) X

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +1.4% 2) Defense +1.3% 3) Networking +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AMJ 2) FINL 3) VSAR 4) KMX 5) TXN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CUB 2) KMX 3) S 4) TXN 5) AAL

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Stocks Drop, Yen Rises on Renewed N. Korea Tension. After a flat start to Friday’s Asian session, benchmarks dropped in Tokyo and Seoul, and S&P 500 Index futures declined. Bond yields retreated and the yen and gold climbed after Yonhap News cited a North Korean official saying the “highest level of hard-line” countermeasures against the U.S. could refer to a hydrogen-bomb in the Pacific Ocean. North Korea’s nuclear tests up to now have taken place on its own soil. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3 percent as of 11:30 a.m. Tokyo time and South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.7 percent.
  • Shale Billionaire Hamm Slams 'Exaggerated' U.S. Oil Projections. (video) Billionaire oilman Harold Hamm says the government was way too optimistic with its prediction of more than 1 million new barrels a day in U.S. production, and the snafu is “distorting" global crude prices. This year’s rise is likely to be closer to about 500,000 barrels, far off an initial forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, according to Hamm, the chairman of Continental Resources Inc. and a pioneer in the shale industry.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.46 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (KMX)/.95
  • (FINL)/.11
Economic Releases 
9:45 am EST
  • Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for September is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 52.8 in August.
  • Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for September is estimated to fall to 557 versu 56.0 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's George speaking and the Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Geopolitical Concerns, Profit-Taking, Steel/Oil Service Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.71 -.72%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.0 +.61%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.80 +1.56%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 22.29 +1.32%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -8.77%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -6.98%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 +24.11%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.33 +1.09%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 429.0 +4.67%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.62 +1.44%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.44 -.67%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.10 -3.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 188.89 -.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.85 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.25 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 30.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.42 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 84.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $66.09/Metric Tonne -5.11%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.30 +8.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.20 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.40 +.9 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -2.0 basis points
  • 72.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 72.8% chance at Jan. 31 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -32 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

  • Puerto Rico's Economic Crisis Grows in Maria's Wake. Hurricane Maria is Puerto Rico’s worst in nearly a century, a double blow as it follows the destructive Hurricane Irma by just two weeks. The costs, both human and financial, have only begun to come into view. This much is certain: the U.S. territory, bankrupted by runaway debt, now confronts an even deeper economic crisis. Four months after the island’s government sought protection from creditors in the nation’s largest municipal insolvency, the odds of a speedy resolution now appear to be dimming. President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to visit the island and declared Puerto Rico a disaster zone, which helps clear the way for federal assistance.
  • Take the Fed's Dot Plot Forecast in Stride, Deutsche Bank Says. (video) The bond market needs to take a chill pill when it comes to the dot plot -- the Federal Reserve’s quarterly outlook for policy rates, which was updated Wednesday. That’s what Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank AG, says given that with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer attending his final FOMC meeting this week, four of the seven board seats will be empty. “For markets, this might not seem important here and now, but it is pretty clear that dramatic changes are coming to the Fed before the end of the year, which has significant implications” including on the leadership’s outlook for inflation, wrote Slok in a note. “It almost makes you wonder if the dot plot and forecasts the Fed released yesterday have any value for markets.
Wall Street Journal: