Saturday, May 19, 2018

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China to `Significantly' Boost U.S. Purchases After Trade Talks. China will “significantly increase purchases” of U.S. goods and services, the White House said in a joint statement following talks aimed at resolving a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. Vice Premier Liu He, a special envoy of China’s President Xi Jinping, held talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday, termed “constructive consultations,” with U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. China agreed to “meaningful increases in U.S. agriculture and energy exports,” the White House said, adding that the U.S. will send a team to China to work out the details.
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (KO), (CBS), (XLE), (BZUN), (PEP) and (PG).
  • Had bearish commentary on .

Friday, May 18, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,714.61 -.45%





















The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 24,733.60 -.39%
  • NASDAQ 7,361.66 -.44%
  • Russell 2000 1,627.04 +1.39%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.27 +1.33%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 151.24 +1.09%
  • Wilshire 5000 28,241.0 -.21%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,421.11 -.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,199.92 -.35%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 507.40 -.15%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.6731 +1.87%
  • NYSE Technology 1,854.77 -1.29%
  • Transports 10,747.20 +.43%
  • Utilities 665.57 -3.82%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 95.33 +2.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 46.34 -2.2%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,291.41 +.02%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,019.74 +.03%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 319,672 +.12%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 270 -32
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 67.44 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 679.928 -1.56%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,658,229 +1.39%
  • Total Put/Call .98 unch.
  • OEX Put/Call .63 -58.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 94.0 -19.13%
  • NYSE Arms 2.03 +74.55%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.59 +6.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.88 +2.99%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.17 +.84% 
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.22 +7.71%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,902.83 +.01%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.818 Trillion +.41%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$1.302 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 36.7 +9.5%
  • AAII % Bears 20.6 -19.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 203.93 +.18%
  • Crude Oil 71.40 +1.16%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 224.18 +3.08%
  • Natural Gas 2.85 +1.53%
  • Heating Oil 227.21 +2.62%
  • Gold 1,291.20 -2.09%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 208.19 +.10%
  • Copper 306.30 -1.51%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 343.53 USD/Metric Tonne -2.77%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.40 USD/Metric Tonne -4.48%
  • Lumber 624.0 +4.78%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,019.61 +.75%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.1%+10.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.3% -20.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3387 -7.0% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 64.81 -14.4%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 165.26 +.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.30 -9.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -91.70 +6.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.8 -4.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 6/13
  • US Dollar Index 93.62 +1.15%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,675.09 -.96%
  • Bitcoin/USD 8,112.82 -3.83%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.68 -.21%
  • Yield Curve 51.75 +8.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.07% +10.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.298 Trillion -.47%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.93 -4.47%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 223.65 -.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 +33.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 12.97 +7.15%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.79 +30.3%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.55 +11.29%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.27 +9.32%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.0 +4.76%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.19 -.14%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17% unch.
  • TED Spread 44.25 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -5.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.52 +4.54%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 358.0 -1.31%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.78 +10.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 170.74 +10.7%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.615 Trillion -1.75%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,068.90 +.9%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,250 -2,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.61% +6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 376.50 -2.74%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 54.60 -1.2 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.90% +160.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.91/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,305.0 -11.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 785.63 +2.95%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 282,833 +.88%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +1.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +4.8%
  • Retail +2.4%
  • Energy +2.4%
  • Paper +2.2%
  • Healthcare Providers +2.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Gold & Silver -2.0% 
  • Foods -2.1%
  • Homebuilders -2.2%
  • REITs -2.3%
  • Utilities -3.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)
  • TTD, EXPI, ARCB, LOXO, CTSO, OMER, BOLD, REGI, ABAX, BOOT, MCFT, IMMR, ALTR, WWE, M, FNHC, EOLS, RCKT, CHDN, CBIO, FARM, OPTN, BCEI, ALBO, CVG, GTXI and LIND
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)
  • YELP, AMBA, AYR, FPH, WRD, A, HALO, JACK, AVAV, KELYA, FLO, PSDO, ITRI, SWCH, SYMC and JNCE
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Jitters, European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Financial/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.44 +.07%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.71 -.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.22 +2.56%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.95 +2.86%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -31.47%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +15.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.87 +92.72%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.63 +1.16%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 358.0 -1.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.50 +6.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 +17.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.96 +.54%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.69 +3.48%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.19 -.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 44.25 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.01 -.48%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 52.0 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.11 USD/Metric Tonne -2.62%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.30 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -91.70 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.80 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -79  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long