Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, July 06, 2020

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:  
  • Asia Stocks Set for Muted Start; U.S. Shares Rally: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks looked set for a mixed start Tuesday after strong gains Monday that were carried into the U.S. The dollar fell for a fifth day. Futures edged lower in Japan and pointed to a modest rise in Hong Kong and Australia. S&P 500 futures dipped after the benchmark rallied for a fifth session, with tech gains pushing the Nasdaq Composite to a record high. Amazon.com Inc. shares rose past $3,000 for the first time, while Tesla Inc. extended a five-day rally to more than 40%. Treasuries dipped. The dollar slid to the weakest since June 10 as risk-on sentiment sapped demand for havens. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%. The S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% Monday. Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.1%. Hang Seng futures rose 0.7%. S&P/ASX 200 futures climbed 0.5%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.6%.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
Zero Hedge:    
The Epoch Times:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25%  to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.63 +.05%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (PAYX)/.60
After the Close:
  • (LEVI)/-.42
  • (SGH)/.67
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for May are estimated to fall to 4500 versus 5046 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The France trade data report, $46B 3Y T-Note auction and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.03 +1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.96 +.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.98 +.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.4 -.05%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .68 -20.0%
  • NYSE Arms .77 -9.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.15 -2.62%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 965.72 -1.32%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.66 -5.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.5 -13.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.89 -1.39%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.91 +.74%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.88 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.0 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -2.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  104.0 -4.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 69.0 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.61 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% unch.
  • Yield Curve 53.75 +2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.10 USD/Metric Tonne +1.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 213.60 +25.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.70 +19.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.60 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.45 +5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +205 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.75 -2.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.59 +.09%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +1.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.58%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.82%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 45.4 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Retail Sales report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Europe Stocks Decline With U.S. Futures; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap. U.S. futures and European stocks dropped on Friday as investors mulled a reported conflict among policy makers over a stimulus package for the single-currency region, as well as political upheaval in France. The Stoxx 600 Index fell after Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank is facing a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy. The euro fluctuated following French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to name a new prime minister after asking his government to resign. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc slumped after the British jet-engine maker said it’s exploring options to raise funds to strengthen its balance sheet. Futures on the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.4%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.8%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%. The MSCI Emerging Market Index gained 1%.
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: