Friday, April 18, 2014

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,864.85 +1.73%*

 photo dft_zps4a3de082.png


The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,864.85 +1.73%
  • DJIA 16,408.54 +1.47%
  • NASDAQ 4,095.52 +1.02%
  • Russell 2000 1,137.90 +.91%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 30.93 +2.59%
  • Wilshire 5000 19,554.50 +1.60%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 861.34 +1.54%
  • Russell 1000 Value 948.55 +1.78%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 448.37 +1.55%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,516.45 +2.15%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 916.12 +1.30%
  • Transports 7,634.42 +2.73%
  • Utilities 543.0 +1.53%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.02 -.62%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.69 -.97%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,155.35 -1.45%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 972.88 -.22%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 214,360 +1.23%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 187 +269
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.43 -22.33%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 399,787 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,655,472 n/a
  • Total Put/Call .84 -16.83%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.13 +6.60%
  • ISE Sentiment 93.0 +19.23%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -61.60%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.36 -15.92%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.46 +.88%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.65 -2.49%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.42 +.60%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 10,918.85 +.82%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.577 Trillion -1.34%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$2.076 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 27.22 -4.4%
  • AAII % Bears 34.25 +.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 311.46 +.41%
  • Crude Oil 104.30 +.87%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 305.47 +1.55%
  • Natural Gas 4.74 +2.33%
  • Heating Oil 300.82 +2.40%
  • Gold 1,293.90 -1.84%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 190.78 +.46%
  • Copper 304.50 +.20%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Ton +3.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.50 USD/Ton -2.18%
  • Lumber 329.70 -.24%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,547.78 +.54%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.9% +60 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1429 +7.69%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.71 +.07%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.1 -14.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.70 -2.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30
  • US Dollar Index 79.87 +.46%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.63 +.27%
  • Yield Curve 233.0 +6 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.72% +10 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.241 Trillion +.95%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.13 -4.83%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 133.0 +2.63%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 34.91 -3.01%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 88.08 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 263.60 +3.2%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.76 -.84%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 240.34 +7.89%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 354.40 +.87%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21% +7.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.5 +1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.76 -1.58%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 79.95 -3.29%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 277.14 -.83%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 83.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $2.754 Trillion +.78%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,044.50 +.60%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 312,000 -4,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.27% -7 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 366.10 +4.3%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.10 +2.8 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.6% -10 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.66/gallon +.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 930 -9.62%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,070.97 +.27%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 264,382 +1.26%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +4.5%
  • Energy +4.1%
  • Defense +3.1%
  • I-Banking +3.0%
  • Road & Rail +2.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Steel -2.0% 
  • Oil Tankers -2.0%
  • Homebuilders -2.1%
  • Gold & Silver -4.3%
  • HMOs -4.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
  • AKBA, ZIGO, CHDX, RGEN, ATHL and CNMD
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)
  • HMSY, ZBRA, BCO, PBY, MDBX, TZOO and CNSI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Less Global Growth Fear, Yen Weakness, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.25 -6.56%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.68 +.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.43 -1.17%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.68 +.65%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -5.06%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -4.44% 
  • NYSE Arms .78 -28.37% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.66 -.61%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.97 -.23%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.91 -.54%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 88.08 +.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 277.27 -1.09%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 354.40 -1.37%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 20.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 233.0 +6.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.50/Metric Tonne +.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.10 +4.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.70 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +4.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +135 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Talks End With Accord on Steps to De-Escalate Conflict. Four-way talks on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord aimed at taking the first steps toward de-escalating the conflict after President Vladimir Putin said he hopes he won’t have to send troops. Talks in Geneva today between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Deshchytsia, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, went on for more than six hours, longer than scheduled. Kerry said Russia must start implementing the deal within the next few days.
  • Forcing Russia Out of Markets Seen as Ukraine Leverage. Forcing Russia out of global financial markets is the strongest tool at U.S. President Barack Obama’s disposal if he wants to stop Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions, according to former government officials and sanctions specialists.
  • Japan Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Since 2011. Japan’s consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since August 2011, and the government cut its economic assessment for the first time in 17 months, as a sales-tax increase on April 1 sapped the public’s spending power. The March confidence reading of 37.5 fell by 1 from the previous month, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today.
  • Korean Companies Facing Debt Wall Turn to Dollar Bond Market. Bond investors are readying for a slew of South Korean deals as companies from Asia’s fourth-biggest economy face the most maturing dollar notes since 1999. “South Korean companies have significant refinancing requirements this year,” said Mark Reade, a Hong Kong-based desk analyst at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. “And with low Treasury yields driving inflows into U.S. investment-grade funds, there’s plenty of appetite for high-quality names from Asia.”
  • European Stocks Climb on U.S. Unemployment-Claims Report. European stocks climbed for a second day as a report showed fewer Americans claimed unemployment benefits last week than estimated. Renault SA and Daimler AG each gained more than 1.5 percent as a report showed European car sales rose in March. Remy Cointreau SA and Diageo Plc (DGE) declined more than 3 percent after reporting lower sales. SAP AG lost 1.2 percent as Germany’s biggest technology company said that revenue from new software licenses dropped in the quarter. Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) slid the most in nine months as its sales missed projections. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.5 percent to 332.43 at the close of trading.
  • Obama Budget Raises Taxes $1.4 Trillion in Decade, CBO Says. President Barack Obama’s proposed 2015 budget would increase taxes by $1.4 trillion over the next decade compared with current law, the budget agency said. In a fresh analysis of the White House budget plan for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1, the Congressional Budget Office said the proposal would result in a $446 billion spending increase for the 10 years ending in 2024. The agency projected that under the plan, the U.S. budget deficit would increase over a three-year period.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
NY Times:
  • Russia Economy Worsens Even Before Sanctions Hit. Margarita R. Zobnina, a professor of marketing here, has been watching the Russian economy’s gathering woes with mounting alarm: friends who have moved abroad with no plans to return; others who put off new business ventures because of rising uncertainty. Meanwhile, Ms. Zobnina and her husband, Alexander, also a professor, have rented a safe deposit box to hold foreign cash as a hedge against the declining ruble.
    Most shocking, she says, is that her local grocery is now selling anchovies packed in sunflower oil rather than olive oil, an obvious response to the soaring cost of imports. “That really freaks me out,” she said.
LifeNews.com:
  • Report Confirms Obamacare Restricts Access to Life-Saving Medical Care. A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report now documents that Obamacare exchange plans, while often cheaper, are restricting access to life-saving medical care. According to the CBO’s recently released “Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014,” Obamacare’s insurance provisions will cost $104 billion less than projected over the next decade. However, these savings will come at tremendous cost. The CBO goes on to describe the reality — that while there are savings on insurance premiums, there is solid and growing evidence that these plans restrict access to life-saving medical treatment for ourselves, our family members, and our loved ones. CBO writes,
USA Today:
  • Jews Ordered to Register in East Ukraine. Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Israeli media. Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.
Telegraph:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.10%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) HMOs -2.50% 2) Computer Services -2.31% 3) Homebuilders -1.21%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • MGI, CMG, CHMT, BKS, TZOO, UFPI, EFII, HNI, REGI, PDCE, AET, WU, BGS, DHR, CNC, GOOGL, UNH, CCK, VMC, BBT, AXP, STLD, FITB, RARE, IBM, ADS and MGI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GOOG 2) JWN 3) KRE 4) EWH 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PM 2) FB 3) WLP 4) SO 5) ABX
Charts: