Sunday, September 15, 2019

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:   
  • Oil Soars, Yen Gains After Saudi Oil Field Attacks. Oil surged and the yen climbed after a strike on the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil production increased geopolitical risk concern. U.S. equity futures declined and Treasury futures rose. Brent crude soared 13% and West Texas Intermediate added 11%. News of the devastating attack on the world’s largest crude exporter also sent currencies of commodity-linked nations higher, including the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. U.S. President Donald Trump said he has authorized the release of supplies from the country’s emergency fuel storage, known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if that is needed. Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% as of 8:50 a.m. in Sydney. The underlying gauge declined 0.1% on Friday. Hang Seng futures ended Friday up 0.2%.  
Zero Hedge:   
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.13 +.03%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.32%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.59%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 4.0 versus 4.8 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Industrial Production/Retail Sales reports, RBA Minutes and (VAR) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as profit-taking, technical selling and less dovish FOMC commentary offsets easing China trade tensions, oil strength and diminished global growth concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        
  • Had bullish commentary on  (UHAL), (CP), (CSX), (TPR), (ADBE), (NFLX), (DIS), (LUV), (S), (UAL), (ALGT) and (DAL).
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:

Friday, September 13, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,007.39 +.96%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 27,219.52 +1.57%
  • NASDAQ 8,176.72 +.91%
  • Russell 2000 1,578.14 +4.85%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 42.90 +3.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.0 +7.89%
  • Wilshire 5000 30,823.92 +1.16%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,622.75 -.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,275.99 +2.41%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 622.72 -.92%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,124.90 +.63%
  • NYSE Technology 1,963.22 +.05%
  • Transports 10,813.62 +4.96%
  • Utilities 846.99 -.15%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 73.13 +8.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.12 +1.87%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,234.19 +.29%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 951.52 +.13%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 374,330 +1.09%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 249 +73
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.88 -25.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 384,157 -1.91%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,082,415 +3.96%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%
  • OEX Put/Call 46.3 +5,391%
  • ISE Sentiment 89.0 +4.71%
  • NYSE Arms .79 -46.88%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -7.87%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.81 -9.68%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.77 -1.88%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.09 -1.94%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,886.81 +2.35%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.397 Trillion +.50%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.387 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 33.1 +15.7%
  • AAII % Bears 31.3 -20.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 174.79 +1.30%
  • Crude Oil 54.89 -2.89%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 155.25 -1.05%
  • Natural Gas 2.63 +4.06%
  • Heating Oil 187.78 -.75%
  • Gold 1,489.70 -1.02%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.18 +1.44%
  • Copper 269.80 +2.57%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 248.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.13%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +7.49%
  • Lumber 379.90 +7.47%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 834.94 +2.9%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.81% +34.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.5% +40.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1223 +11.7%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 399.37 +149.8%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.15 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.40 +12.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.50 +2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.60 +10.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18
  • US Dollar Index 98.25 +.17%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,618.31 +.61%
  • Bitcoin/USD 10,219.36 -1.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.31 +1.52%
  • Yield Curve 7.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.90% +35.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.731 Trillion +.23%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.82 +11.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.98 -02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -66.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.90 -4.57%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.80 -3.37%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.94 -1.24%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.41 +.26%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.33 -8.53%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.36 +.09%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% +12.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread .25 -3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 +6.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.05 -2.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 393.0 -5.77%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.38 -2.50%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 201.20 +1.77%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 +.56%
  • M1 Money Supply $3.873 Trillion +1.27%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,115.70 -.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,500 -3,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.56% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 569.80 +2.02%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.2 -.2 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.40% +100.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.57/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,331 -5.32%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 823.75 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 230,297 -15.75%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +6.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +9.1%
  • Banks +8.3%
  • Oil Service +8.2%
  • Airlines +7.3%
  • Retail +6.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Pharma -1.1% 
  • REITs -1.8%
  • Software -1.9%
  • Gold & Silver -4.1%
  • Restaurants -4.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)
  • KEM, DAN, IGT, AGS, CARS, GEL, SHLX, MDC, RMBS, UCTT, OI, TGI, ETSY, REVG, DCP, WES and PK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)
  • MDB, ZS and APLS
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change