Sunday, March 24, 2019

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Stocks to Drop in Asia, Yields Fall on Growth Woes. Stocks in Asia looked set to track heavy losses in U.S. equities as bond yields continued to march lower amid concerns that momentum is slowing in the global economy. The risk-off tone that built on Friday looks set to extend into Asia early Monday, as futures signaled losses for equities in Japan and Hong Kong, while Australian shares opened weaker. Australia’s 10-year bond yield hit an all-time low after the yield on Germany’s 10-year bonds tumbled below zero and a closely watched gauge of Treasuries inverted for the first time since 2007, underscoring the return to globally low long-term rates. U.S. equity futures showed little reaction to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s decision to forgo an obstruction case against President Donald Trump. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.7 percent in Singapore late Friday. Hang Seng Index futures dropped 1.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1 percent. The S&P 500 Index decreased 1.9 percent Friday. Futures were little changed.
Zero Hedge:   
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -.25 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.5 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.28 +.09%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (WGO)/.60
After the Close:
  • (RHT)/1.01
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -.25 versus -.43 in Jan.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to 9.6 versus 13.1 in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German IFO Business Climate Index and the (AAPL) news/video service event could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lowe, weighed dow by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on China trade deal worries, global growth fears, technical selling, yen strength, Brexit concerns and oil weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      
  • Had bullish commentary on (GM), (TSLA), (LEA), (APTV), (BWA) and (PLNT).
Zero Hedge:  
Business Insider:

Friday, March 22, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,813.55 -.24%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,600.24 -.59%
  • NASDAQ 7,670.80 +.19%
  • Russell 2000 1,516.97 -2.39%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 41.29 -.79%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 157.16 -.67%
  • Wilshire 5000 28,922.41 -.29%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,509.97 +.39%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,207.41 -1.07%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 572.78 +1.23%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,051.78 +.50%
  • NYSE Technology 1,865.97 +.71%
  • Transports 10,107.07 -1.82%
  • Utilities 787.34 +1.16%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 76.03 -3.82%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.96 +.14%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,220.32 -.02%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 968.53 -.10%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 344,852 +.91%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 302 +394
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 58.06 +.29%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 362,265 +3.86%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,012,864 -2.66%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +1.22%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.33 -50.92%
  • ISE Sentiment 56.0 -19.72%
  • NYSE Arms 1.58 +50.89%
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.73 +23.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.23 -1.42%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.93 +7.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.38 +6.35%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,997.76 +1.58%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.065 Trillion -1.52%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$12.833 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 37.3 +15.1%
  • AAII % Bears 23.4 -24.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 184.15 +.15%
  • Crude Oil 58.98 +1.06%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 192.08 +3.91%
  • Natural Gas 2.76 -1.36%
  • Heating Oil 196.31 -.09%
  • Gold 1,312.0 +.74%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 187.67 -.07%
  • Copper 285.20 -1.99%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 321.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.83%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.59 USD/Metric Tonne -2.98%
  • Lumber 369.0 -5.59%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 903.97 -.14%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.38% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.30% +60.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2613 +7.9%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 59.83 -39.69%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 171.63 -.07%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.80 +2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -60.0 -25.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.90 +7.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 93.8% chance of no change, 6.2% chance of 25 basis point cut on 5/1
  • US Dollar Index 96.64 +.23%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,653.57 +.61%
  • Bitcoin/USD 3,992.46 +2.47%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.13 -1.72%
  • Yield Curve 12.25 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.46% -14.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.924 Trillion -.22%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.94 +11.69%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 205.20 +5.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 246.25 +5.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.87 +3.64%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 51.09 +6.48%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.71 +9.86%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.06 +4.63%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.05 +7.18%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.34 +.30%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91% -4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.25 -2.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -4.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.94 +14.5%(new series)
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 519.0 +1.38%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.72 +21.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 177.38 +5.63%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.729 Trillion -1.01%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,082.60 +2.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 225,000 -1,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.28% -3.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 390.0 +1.56%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.70 +.7 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.6% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.61/gallon +.08/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 695.0 -4.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 821.04 unch.
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 260,684 -3.75%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Video Gaming +3.0%
  • Foods +2.1%
  • Gold & Silver +1.4%
  • Restaurants +1.3%
  • Semis +1.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -3.5% 
  • Education -3.8%
  • Biotech -4.5%
  • I-Banks -5.2%
  • Banks -8.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
  • HIBB, YETI, PZZA, CCXI, CAG and TIF
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (46)
  • LOB, HBAN, FITB, BIIB, SCS, DSW, CATY, SCHW, FRGI, VIAB, CHGG, TCF, CHFC, AB, BAC, TCBI, FHN, MBUU, IBKC, PPBI, EGBN, C, AMTD, EWBC, GH, SSB, AL, ZION, GES, HOMB, AMG, PNFP, KEY, YEXT, WAL, UCBI, RNST, TEN, RF, WTRH, AVYA, SBCF, SIVB, COOP, GBX, CAL, TCMD and DXCM
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