Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -1.75 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.62 -.07%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.05%
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (ADS)/4.67
  • (BBT)/1.01
  • (BX)/.74
  • (BK)/1.02
  • (DHR)/1.09
  • (DPZ)/1.74
  • (FITB)/.57
  • (GPC)/1.57
  • (KEY)/.42
  • (NUE)/2.09
  • (PM)/1.23
  • (SAP)/1.00
  • (TSM)/2.75
  • (UNP)/1.95
After the Close:
  • (COF)/2.62
  • (CTAS)/1.68
  • (ETFC)/.88
  • (ISRG)/2.49
  • (MSFT)/1.08
  • (SWKS)/1.60
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 220K versus 214K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1729K versus 1739K prior.
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for July is estimated to rise to 21.5 versus 19.9 in June.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia Unemployment report, Japan CPI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for July, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (FUL) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.50 -.5 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.76 -.03%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.46%
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (ABT)/.71
  • (ASML)/1.21
  • (MS)/1.10
  • (TXT)/.70
  • (USB)/1.00
After the Close:
  • (AA)/1.32
  • (AXP)/1.81
  • (CP)/3.11
  • (CCI)/1.21
  • (EBAY)/.51
  • (IBM)/3.04
  • (KMI)/.19
  • (URI)/3.53
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for June are estimated to fall to 1320K versus 1350K.
  • Building Permits for June are estimated to rise to 1330K versus 1301K in May.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,456,420 barrels versus a -12,633,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -395,270 barrels versus a -694,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,353,640 barrels versus a +4,125,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.01% versus a -.4% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Releases Beige Book.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testimony to House, Eurozone CPI report, UK PPI report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Monday, July 16, 2018

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.0 -1.0 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.78 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.27%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (SCHW)/.58
  • (CMA)/1.68
  • (GS)/4.65
  • (JNJ)/2.07
  • (OMC)/1.54
  • (PGR)/1.11
  • (UNH)/3.04
After the Close:
  • (CSX)/.86
  • (IBKR)/.42
  • (MRTN)/.22
  • (UAL)/3.07
Economic Releases 
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.1% decline in May.
  • Manufacturing Production for June is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.7% decline in May.
  • Capacity Utilization for June is estimated to rise to 78.3% versus 77.9% in May.
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated at 68 versus 68 in June.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testifying to Senate, China New Home Price report, UK Unemployment report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 -2.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.5 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.72 unch.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.10%
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (BAC)/.59
  • (BLK)/6.57
  • (JBHT)/1.28
After the Close:
  • (NFLX)/.79
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated to fall to 20.6 versus 25.0 in June.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in May.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in May. 
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in May.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The President's meeting with Putin and the China GDP/Industrial Production reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on stable long-term rates, US economic optimism, earnings outlooks, technical buying, less Emerging Markets debt angst and yen weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, July 13, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,799.63 +1.46%





















The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,017.40 +2.27%
  • NASDAQ 7,821.55 +1.72%
  • Russell 2000 1,688.80 -.29%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.11 +1.05%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 168.69 +1.05%
  • Wilshire 5000 29,155.60 +1.26%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,499.27 +2.11%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,210.18 +.68%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 541.46 +.98%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.63 +2.66%
  • NYSE Technology 1,948.23 +1.34%
  • Transports 10,569.10 +.88%
  • Utilities 719.10 -1.27%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 87.06 -1.05%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.86 +1.36%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,285.21 +.15%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,002.98 +.20%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 327,938 +.63%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 44 +121
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 54.2 -9.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 656,720 +5.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,466,531 +1.76%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -4.0%
  • OEX Put/Call .22 -82.31%
  • ISE Sentiment 173.0 +85.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 +96.8%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.44 -7.85%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.11 -10.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.25 +2.98% 
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.2 +8.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,810.12 +1.6%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.851 Trillion +.91%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$12.535 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 43.1 +54.5%
  • AAII % Bears 29.2 -25.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 193.85 -2.17%
  • Crude Oil 71.18 -3.82%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 210.60 -.16%
  • Natural Gas 2.76 -2.95%
  • Heating Oil 213.54 -1.74%
  • Gold 1,241.30 -1.08%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.29 -2.03%
  • Copper 277.40 -1.47%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 334.58 USD/Metric Tonne +.38%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Lumber 520.60 -1.77%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 918.48 -3.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.9% +10 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.5% -70.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1039 +6.4% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 39.7 -76.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 168.48 +.27%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.90 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +4.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 83.5% chance of no change, 16.5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 8/1
  • US Dollar Index 94.92 +.91%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,629.41 +.10%
  • Bitcoin/USD 6,254.46 -4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.57 +1.18%
  • Yield Curve 25.0 -3.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.83% unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.252 Trillion +.04%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.72 +2.93%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 205.33 -.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 221.0 -21.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 13.61 -9.3%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.08 +3.67%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.57 -3.12%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.55 -6.38%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.17 -7.77%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.96 -.22%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 37.25 -2.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.50 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +3.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.63 -6.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 385.0 -2.93%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 77.29 -7.71%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 174.21 -1.45%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.649 Trillion +.29%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,075.0 +.9%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 223,000 -1,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.53% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 372.60 +2.48%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.0 +.4 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.30% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.87/gallon +.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,632.0 +.62%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 808.55 -.90%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 244,679 -16.6%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Software +3.7%
  • Gaming +3.5%
  • Defense +2.8%
  • Computer Services +2.4%
  • Internet +2.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Agriculture -.7% 
  • Tobacco -1.2%
  • Utilities -1.3%
  • Telecom -1.6%
  • Gold & Silver -3.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
  • ZGNX, FNKO, MNRO, HZO, SFIX and AERI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)
  • EGAN, PEGI, INGR and NVRO
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change