BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:24 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 +.25 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.5 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 -.14%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.53 -.05%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.5 +.1%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.31% +1.0 basis point.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.51%.
S&P 500 futures -.09%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:37 PM

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.1%
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -4.0 basis points
3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points

China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +.1 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.8 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.9 -.6 points
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.93 +.12: Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.41 +.17: Growth Rate +24.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.3
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 -20.0 basis points
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 -.2
US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -.2 percentage point
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.4% -.4 percentage point

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -2.0 basis points
Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.2% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:52 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Road & Rail +1.6% 2) Utilities +.8% 3) Pharma +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PLYM, SSYS, KYIV, WW, PINC, INTC, BRBR, NWE, VEON, LOB, XPEV, TGNA, LNW, ZK, TSEM, PANW, TCOM, NSP and IBTA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) BANC 2) AS 3) BILL 4) OMER 5) VKTX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) PINC 2) PANW 3) PLYM 4) INTC 5) HD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) XLV 3) IYW 4) IYZ 5) IDU

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 2:29 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ALC)/.72
(ADI)/1.95
(BIDU)/13.24
(DY)/2.92
(EL)/.09
(KC)/-.96
(LOW)/4.24
(TGT)/2.04
(TJX)/1.01
(GES)/.15
(WSM)/1.78

After the Close:

(COTY)/.01
(NDSN)/2.64

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -823,500 barrels versus a +3,036,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -83,250 barrels versus a -792,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,613,750 barrels versus a +714,000 barrel gain the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

FOMC Meeting Minutes from July 30th.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Jackson Hole Symposium, 20Y T-Bond auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 1:04 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -14.6% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.3 -2.0
4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
54.7% of Issues Advancing, 43.3% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.39 +40.4%
Non-Block Money Flow -$30.4M
59 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
55.7% (+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 59.5 -.1

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.0 -.2%
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.3 -1.0%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.2 -2.3%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -5.0
1-Day Vix 9.2 +16.3%
Vix 15.7 +4.9%
Total Put/Call .90 +12.5%

Monday, August 18, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:00 PM

Around X:

@Business

Zelenskiy and Trump expressed hope their summit with European leaders could result in trilateral talks with Putin over ending his war on Ukraine: Here’s your Evening Briefing.
Japan’s auction of 20-year government bonds on Tuesday will be closely watched as the risk of a government spending surge weighs on investor appetite for super-long debt.
Australia’s consumer confidence surged in August after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year and signaled further easing is likely.
Palo Alto jumped on a stronger-than-expected annual forecast, as the company seeks to provide customers with a bundle of AI-enabled cybersecurity products to fend off attacks.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here's what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

Explosion Rocks Cargo Ship Departing Baltimore Harbor.
Restoring Law & Order In Crime-Ridden Cities May Be Key To Resolving Affordability Crisis.
SOFTBANK GROUP TO INVEST $2B IN INTEL CORP.
'Socialism Defeated': Bolivia Boots Its Ruling Leftists After 20 Years In Power.
Trump Says Putin, Zelensky To Soon Meet, 'Everyone Very Happy' About Chances For Peace.
Are You Ready For A Humanoid Robot To Assist In Household Chores?
JPMorgan's Market Intel Desk Remains "Tactically Bullish": Here's Why.
Quant Carnage Continues, Rate-Cut Odds Leak Lower As J-Hole & Jensen Loom.

@CNBC

Analysts downplay AI bubble worries as Altman says some investors will be left 'very burnt'.
Tuesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

@TheTranscript

Palo Alto Networks double beat. CEO: "We exited FY 25 with an acceleration in RPO, and surpassed the $10B revenue run-rate milestone, positioning ourselves well for sustained growth ahead." $PANW: +6.3% AH.

@MarioNawful

YOUR ONLINE FLIRT MIGHT BE A TRAFFICKED SLAVE IN A CHINESE SCAM CAMP. Thought the person who sent you a funny message on WhatsApp is an evil crook munching popcorn while lying about their gender? Try a trafficking victim locked in a prison-style compound in Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar, forced by Chinese crime syndicates to run romance scams or get beaten, starved, or electrocuted. (video)

@rawsalerts

#BREAKING: Donald Trump is now more likely than Kamala Harris to win in 2028, despite being constitutionally ineligible — Polymarket.

@TruthFairy131

The UN & WEF are really coming after the companion animals hard atm. These are only some of the articles I’ve seen over the past 48 hours. I would defend my fur family with my life as would many Aussies. Australia needs to leave the UN & WEF & our current Government have to go.

@BillAckman

The NYC mayoral election is a slow-moving, soon-to-be-accelerating train wreck. With
@andrewcuomo and @ericadamsfornyc both still in the race and apparently planning to stay in the race until the end, @ZohranKMamdani is a near certain winner. Mayor Adams or Cuomo can win the election, but not if it is a three- or four-way race. The only path to victory is for one of them to step aside and it needs to happen soon. If Adams and Cuomo truly care about our great city, they should sit down and work it out, and they need to do it now. Socialism will be the death knell for NYC. That will be both Andrew’s and Eric’s legacy if they put their self interest and egos above what is best for the city.

@HistoryNutOTD

Today in 1945, George Orwell published a devastating critique of Communism. Animal Farm reveals why every communist revolution follows the same tragic pattern: liberation to corruption to oppression. Here are 10 truths from Animal Farm Orwell warned us never to forget. (thread)

@DrTrozzi

Why on Earth would anyone spray a potent toxic herbicide over huge swaths of forest? It toxic to plants by design, and is also a dessicant that would help forest fires burn.

@MAGAVoice

Peter Doocy dropped the absolute best question right out the gate catching Zelenskyy off guard: “Zelenskyy are you prepared to continue to keep sending Ukrainian troops to their de*th for another couple years or will you agree to redraw the maps” MIC DROP. (video)

@HustleBitch_

HOLY SH*T! NOVA SCOTIA BANS PEOPLE FROM THE FORESTS WHILE SPRAYING THEM WITH GLYPHOSATE. They're literally saturating the forests with “Roundup.” The trees will die, the land will dry, and the fires will come. This is ENGINEERED COLLAPSE and now we know exactly what they’ve been up to.