Saturday, December 03, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Erdogan Says Turkey Faces ‘Economic Sabotage’ as Lira Plunges. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday said his political enemies are trying to sabotage the economy by speculating on the stock market, foreign exchange rate and interest rates after failing to overthrow his administration in July. The lira plunged to record lows over the past week even as Erdogan urged Turks to convert their foreign currency savings into liras and gold while vowing to keep up his fight against high interest rates.
  • Italy Referendum: What to Watch Into the Night on Sunday.
  • Electric Cars Could Take an OPEC-Sized Bite From Oil Demand.
  • Summers Slams Trump’s Carrier Move as Threat to Capitalism. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers blasted Donald Trump’s deal with United Technologies Corp. to keep factory jobs in Indianapolis, labeling the president-elect’s intervention as a dangerous shift away from American capitalism. Summers, a Democrat who was Treasury chief under then-President Bill Clinton, argued that rich and successful countries have a strong foundation of rules-based capitalism. He said Trump skirted that tradition when he used a “combination of carrots and sticks” to prevent United Technologies from sending jobs at its Carrier plant to Mexico. He called that “an act of ad hoc deal capitalism.”
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:

Friday, December 02, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*


Indices
  • S&P 500 2,191.73 -1.05%
  • DJIA 19,172.0 +.03%
  • NASDAQ 5,255.43 -2.78%
  • Russell 2000 1,314.76 -2.46%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 36.52 +1.42%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 119.80 -1.98%
  • Wilshire 5000 22,787.90 -1.23%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,032.33 -2.04%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,078.85 -.18%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 516.36 -1.67%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3137 -.008%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,182.85 -3.50%
  • Transports 9,050.91 -.09%
  • Utilities 633.61 -1.31%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.17 -.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 35.20 -.24%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,153.39 +.38%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 997.98 -.17%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 268,516 -.64%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 240-400
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 56.41 +26.94%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 276,320 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,995,504 -1.58%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +24.05%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.21 -83.57%
  • ISE Sentiment 93.0 -21.74%
  • NYSE Arms .88 -15.53%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.12 +14.83%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.96 -.8%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.67 +1.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.95 -2.41%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,137.31 -.5%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.719 Trillion +.51%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$.844 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 43.8 -12.3%
  • AAII % Bears 25.1 +13.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 191.69 +3.21%
  • Crude Oil 51.66 +12.38%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 155.99 +13.66%
  • Natural Gas 3.45 +12.44%
  • Heating Oil 166.28 +13.17%
  • Gold 1,176.30 -.59%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 173.62 -1.88%
  • Copper 262.70 -1.92%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 207.0 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 77.79 USD/Ton -2.29%
  • Lumber 336.90 +.75%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,134.20 -2.5%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.9% -70.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.3% +210.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1274 +6.05%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 130.29 +.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.70 +15.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.40 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 +7.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/14
  • US Dollar Index 100.78 -.76%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,500.32 +.27%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.67 +1.03%
  • Yield Curve 128.0 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.39% +3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.407 Trillion -.46%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.9 +3.45%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.0 -.02%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.19 -1.23%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 41.47 -6.38%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 99.97 -1.23%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.09 -3.41%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 760.05 +1.38%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 222.33 -3.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.95 +.05%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95% +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 47.0 +2.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 615.0 -5.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 72.83 -.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 551.0 -10.26%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 104.75 -3.6%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 272.82 +.69%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 135.0 -2.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.404 Trillion +.64%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 923.8 +.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 251,500 +500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.08% +5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 417.20 -9.4%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.9 +.1 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.20% +30.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.16/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,196.0 +1.27%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 774.05 -.40%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 222,893 -19.35%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -3.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +7.3%
  • Coal +4.9%
  • Gold & Silver +4.2%
  • Energy +3.4%
  • Banks +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Hospitals -3.5% 
  • Software -3.5%
  • Alt Energy -4.6%
  • Biotech -4.7%
  • Semis -5.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • TLYS, CLC, NOVN, SKX, TIME, THO, PKY, WGL, IIIN and UA/C
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)
  • GOOD, KNSL, SNBC, SSNC, BOJA, SITE, SCVL and GES
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on European Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Profit-Taking, Financial/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.09 +.14%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.60 -.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.95 +.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.71 -4.51%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +25.0%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +4.26%
  • NYSE Arms .91 +36.38%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.82 -.81%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 551.0 -3.23%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.75 -1.76%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.18 -.79%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 41.47 -.38%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 272.82 -.17%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.95 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 47.5 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -61.0 -4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.34 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .47% unch.
  • Yield Curve 129.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $77.79/Metric Tonne -.73%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.70 +6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.40 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 +3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95% -5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -51 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long