Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.14%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.5 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -1.8 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.81 +.23: Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.24 +.72: Growth Rate +24.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.50 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 -.4
- US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -.1 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 47.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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