Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.49 -.03%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.24% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.17% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +.6 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.5 -.9 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.4 -.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(476 of 500 reporting) +10.9% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 289.06 +.07: Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 472.88 +.27: Growth Rate +26.5% unch., P/E 32.4 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 -9.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.1 -.2
- US Yield Curve 61.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% -.1 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.0% +1.2 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +7.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.0% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -77 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment