Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate-Cut Odds, More Hawkish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(469 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.09 +.16:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.61 +.20: Growth Rate +24.7% unch., P/E 31.8 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 -18.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.4
• US Yield Curve 55.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 46.3% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer utility/financial sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long