Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.1%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.9 -.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.93 +.12: Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.41 +.17: Growth Rate +24.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 -20.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 -.2
- US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -.2 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.4% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.2% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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