Monday, September 30, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:        
  • Asia Stocks Set for Modest Gains; Dollar Rises. Asian stocks looked set for modest gains after U.S. stocks advanced as investors weighed the latest turns in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The dollar rose and Treasuries edged higher. Futures pointed higher in Japan and were little changed in Australia. The S&P 500 on Monday capped a third month of gains out of the last four, rebounding from the August slide. Technologya fueled Monday’s rise after the Trump administration partially refuted a report it would target Chinese capital, reversing losses sparked by the news Friday. Ten-year Treasuries erased an early drop to trade higher, after data showed weakening business activity. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.5%. S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.1%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 47.25 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.27 -.07%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (MKC)/1.29
After the Close:
  • (SFIX)/.04
  • (UNFI)/.55
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 49.1 in Aug.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to rise to 50.5 versus 46.0 in Aug.
  • Construction Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in July.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 17.0M versus 16.97M in Aug.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Vice Chair Clarida speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Eurozone CPI report and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished China Trade Tensions, Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.4 -4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.32 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 +.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.13 -5.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -1.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +1.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.52 +55.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.22 -2.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 442.0 +1.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.49 -2.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.25 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.34 -.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.07 -1.9%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.02 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread .75 unch.
  • TED Spread 32.0 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 -5.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.29 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.81% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .05 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 88.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.0 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.5 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49 -5.0 basis points
  • 73.1% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 84.5% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/medical/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Oil Service -.9% 3) Shipping -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MAG, EGHT, ARES, VIRT, MRTX, AGIO, CALM, IMMU and GTHX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BKLN 2) KWEB 3) GPRO 4) SFIX 5) BX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CALM 2) IMGN 3) OOMA 4) SXC 5) BA
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +2.5% 2) Medical Equipment +1.6% 3) Gaming +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DOVA, THO, SGEN, WGO, WORK, BBBY, NWL, CRWD, SFIX, URBN, CORE, KBH, MTOR, TPX, USCR and AMBC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MAT 2) URBN 3) NWL 4) APC 5) HYG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DOVA 2) THO 3) SGEN 4) NWL 5) BBBY
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 
  • Stocks Set for Cautious Start on Trade Tensions. Stocks in Asia were set to start the week lower as investors weighed the latest signs of escalating trade tensions and awaited data on China’s economy. U.S. equity futures recovered some of Friday’s losses. Futures in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney slipped after the S&P 500 retreated on Friday, when Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is considering sweeping limits to capital-market investments. The U.S. has no plans “at this time” to stop Chinese companies from listing on American exchanges, a Treasury official said over the weekend. Treasury futures retreated after U.S. bonds ended flat with the 10-year yield at 1.68%. In China, it’s the final day of trading before a week-long holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% as of 8:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge fell 0.5% on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%. Hang Seng futures dropped 1.2%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2%.  
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.5 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.31 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.28%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (CALM)/-.94
  • (THO)/1.49
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 50.4 in Aug.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1.5 versus 2.7 in Aug. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Unemployment Rate report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.