Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Diminished Geopolitical Fears, Technical Buying, Metals&Mining/Restaurant Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.30 +.62%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.24 +1.48%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.2 +2.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .76 -36.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.78 +114.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.74 +1.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 357.0 -7.39%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.54 +3.11%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.5 +7.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.10 -1.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.20 +.74%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.49 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -1.75 -3.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +6.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.87 -.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.98% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .08 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.27 USD/Metric Tonne -1.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.10 +7.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.10 +7.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.4 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -126 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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