Monday, September 23, 2019

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished China Trade Tensions, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Oil Gain, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -2.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.64 -.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.27 +.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.19 +4.68%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -2.88%
  • NYSE Arms .99 -22.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.38 -.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 392.0 +4.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.80 +2.55%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.25 -3.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.98 +1.09%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.79 +1.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.78 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -.25 -4.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.75 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.52 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% unch.
  • Yield Curve .04 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.35 USD/Metric Tonne +1.11%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.70 +3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -67.30 -40.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.9 +1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 -1.0 basis point
  • 76.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 84.9% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -260 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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