Thursday, September 26, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Concerns, Impeachment Talk,Technical Selling, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.1 +.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.34 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.24 -.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.3 -2.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 -12.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.08 +3.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.33 +51.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.44 +.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 412.0 +2.93%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.42 -.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.75 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.13 +.47%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 211.89 +1.83%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.93 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -1.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 24.75 +6.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.35 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.80% -8.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .01 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 89.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.32%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.90 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.60 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.57 -3.0 basis points
  • 73.5% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 85.3% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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