Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, REIT/Restaurant Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.9 +4.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.22 +.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.27 +.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.65 +4.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +15.12%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -14.4%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +22.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.21 +1.07%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 402.0 -3.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.11 +.68%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.75 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.94 -.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.29 +1.14%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.34 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -1.5 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.0 +4.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.73 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.94% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .05 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 88.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.20 -3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.6 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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