Monday, September 30, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished China Trade Tensions, Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.4 -4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.32 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 +.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.13 -5.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -1.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +1.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.52 +55.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.22 -2.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 442.0 +1.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.49 -2.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.25 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.34 -.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.07 -1.9%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.02 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread .75 unch.
  • TED Spread 32.0 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 -5.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.29 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.81% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .05 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 88.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.0 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.5 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49 -5.0 basis points
  • 73.1% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 84.5% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/medical/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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