Friday, August 31, 2007

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,473.99 -.36%
DJIA 13,357.74 -.16%
NASDAQ 2,596.36 +.76%
Russell 2000 792.86 -.76%
Wilshire 5000 14,807.65 -.32%
Russell 1000 Growth 594.19 +.46%
Russell 1000 Value 824.45 -1.04%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 714.29 -.67%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,027.35 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Technology 636.04 +1.0%
Transports 4,878.75 -.76%
Utilities 484.79 -2.81%
MSCI Emerging Markets 134.35 +3.65%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 65,004 -.58%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -137 +5.52%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls n/a
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 202,843 -2.0%
Total Put/Call 1.03 -3.74%
NYSE Arms .59 -4.83%
Volatility(VIX) 23.38 +12.83%
ISE Sentiment 122.0 +6.1%
AAII % Bulls 40.30 -2.37%
AAII % Bears 46.27 +7.31%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 73.88 +4.12%
Reformulated Gasoline 196.55 +3.15%
Natural Gas 5.43 -4.42%
Heating Oil 205.70 +2.20%
Gold 682.0 +.69%
Base Metals 242.78 +3.77%
Copper 340.20 +.98%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.53% -9 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 324,500 +1.9%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.45% -7 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 615.20 -4.0%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.3%
Nationwide Gas $2.77/gallon -.01/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 17.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 139.20 -.36%
US Dollar Index 80.81 +.15%
CRB Index 308.76 +1.02%

Best Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +.46%

Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Value -1.04%

Leading Sectors
Computer Hardware +2.45%
Engineering & Construction +2.02%

Wireless +1.99%
Computer Services +1.87%
Disk Drives +1.79%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -1.71%
Insurance -2.46%
Banks -2.79%
Utilities -2.81%
Homebuilders -3.28%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Credit Fears, More Economic Optimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Medical longs. I was stopped out of a short, covered some of my (EEM) short and exited my remaining (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is very positive today as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, every sector is rising and volume is light. My intraday gauge of investor angst is at above-average levels, despite gains. There was a significant -$2.1 billion in outflows from the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index fund this week, which corresponds with meaningful “value” stock underperformance this year relative to “growth.” I expect global growth to move back toward more average rates from current booming levels over the intermediate term, which will likely result in even greater growth stock outperformance. It is also noteworthy, considering recent substantial outflows, that taxable bond funds saw inflows of $132 million this week. Bernanke's speech today basically reiterated what he has already said of late. I still think a 25-basis-point cut is likely at the next meeting if economic data for August shows more weakness. ISM reports, auto sales, retail sales and the employment report next week will provide much more color on the Fed's upcoming actions. I still believe the market is in a win-win situation. If data continue to show economic resiliency and the Fed doesn't cut, I believe stocks will rally from current levels. If the Fed does cut, I think stocks will rally in anticipation of faster growth in the future. Personal income/spending, PCE core, Chicago PMI, factory orders and consumer confidence were all encouraging today. As well, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell another 7 basis points this week, to 6.45%. It has now declined 33 basis points from June 14 highs. It is also a positive that the three-month T-bill yield has risen 53 basis points from yesterday's lows. The Baltic Dry Index also hit another all-time high this week. Finally, Bloomberg is reporting that the ABX-HE-BBB-07-1 subprime index is rising 9.5% on today's news. While it is still too early to tell if this index has bottomed, its rate of decline has slowed dramatically over the last three weeks. The stabilization of this index in March preceded the stock market's strong advance that began shortly thereafter. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminishing credit fears, more economic optimism and bargain hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- President Bush today pledged to help people who’ve fallen behind in their mortgages keep their homes and to tighten safeguards against predatory lending, while rejecting a bailout for “speculators.”
- Senator Charles Schumer said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson expressed interest in allowing Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) to exceed limits on their combined $1.4 trillion mortgage portfolios in order to help distressed borrowers refinance their home loans.
- The Brazilian real gained as a pledge by President Bush to help delinquent US mortgage holders keep their homes eased concern that the housing slump will throttle global economic growth.
- The risk of owning corporate bonds fell 3.5 basis points today to 69 basis points, according to traders of credit-default swaps.
- A benchmark subprime mortgage ABX index tied to risky home loans made in last year’s second half is rising 9.5% today.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his first public remarks in six weeks, said the central bank will do what’s needed to prevent this month’s credit market rout from undoing the six-year expansion.
- Investors added $83 million to high-yield bond funds, the first infusion in 12 weeks, seeking to capitalize on gains in high-risk debt, JPMorgan Chase(JPM) said, citing AMG Data Services.
- Norman Hsu, a Democratic fundraiser wanted for fraud, turned himself in to California authorities, according to a statement by his lawyer.
- Cree Inc.(CREE) shares jumped the most since June and options trading surged on speculation that the maker of semiconductors that light dashboards and cellular phones may be acquired by General Electric(GE).
- Intel Corp.(INTC) rose to its highest in six weeks after Dell Inc.(DELL) profit beat estimates and a Caris & Co. analyst said Intel’s memory chip venture will probably be approved by regulators.

Wall Street Journal:
- Russian officials are pleased that the country’s capital markets seem to have withstood a $10 billion net outflow in the past three weeks without negative consequences.
- Vulture Funds Start Circling Credit Markets.

Washington Post:
- US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is willing to compromise with Republicans opposed to the Iraq war on limiting troop deployments in the country. Reid will back away from his demand to withdraw from Iraq by the US spring, a position that has impeded his ability to negotiate with Republicans who want to end the war but not to set a timeline.

NY Post:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) is working with record labels to offer ringtones on iPhones from its iTunes online music service.

Times Online:
- Speculation today hit fever pitch over the possible shape of Google’s(GOOG) next foray into telecoms as a host of blogs carried pictures of what claimed to be a low-cost, internet enabled handset – the “Gphone.”

Le Monde:
- French President Nicolas Sarkozy is increasingly willing to join the US and Britain in imposing sanctions on Iran, without waiting for a UN resolution.

Personal Incomes Surge More Than Estimates, Spending Accelerates, Inflation Decelerates, Chicago PMI Rises, Factory Orders Healthy, Confidence Down

- Personal Income for July rose .5% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .4% rise in June.

- Personal Spending for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .3% increase and an upwardly revised .2% gain in June.

- The PCE Core for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised .2% increase in June.

- The Chicago PMI for August rose to 53.8 versus estimate of 53.0 and 53.4 in July.

- Factory Orders for July rose 3.7% versus estimates of a 3.3% gain and an upwardly revised 1.0% increase in June.

- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August came in at 83.4 versus estimates of 82.5 and an 83.3 prior estimate.

BOTTOM LINE: Consumer spending in the US rose more than forecast in July and inflation cooled, a signal the economy was expanding at the start of the third quarter, Bloomberg reported. Incomes rose .5% in July, the most in four months, versus a .4% gain in June. The PCE core, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose less than expected in July and is within the Fed’s comfort zone at 1.9% year-over-year. The savings rate rose to .7% versus .5% the prior month. The better-than-expected PCE core gives the Fed more leeway. I still think a 25 basis point cut is likely at the upcoming meeting.

US business activity unexpectedly rose in August, suggesting that companies continue to expand amid the sell-off in credit markets, Bloomberg said. The new orders component of the index rose to 58.4 from 53.4 the prior month. Many companies still have the ability to increase spending without new borrowing, due to the historical string of profit growth increases over the last few years, according to economists. The inventories component fell to 44.6 from 55.1 in July. The order backlog component rose to 38.8 from 37.4 the prior month. The prices paid component fell to 71.8 in August from 73.1 prior. I continue to believe manufacturing will help boost US growth over the intermediate-term as companies rebuild depleted inventories on rising confidence in the sustainability of the current expansion.

Orders placed with US factories rose more than forecast in July as customers bought more aircraft, machinery and electronics, Bloomberg reported. Orders for durable goods, which make up over half of factory demand, surged a revised 6% in July versus a 1.8% gain the prior month. This gain was paced by a 7% gain in orders for computer and electronic equipment. July orders for capital goods excluding aircraft and military equipment, a gauge of future business investment, gained 1.7% after falling .2% the prior month. Orders for automobiles surged 11%, the most since January 2003. At July’s sales pace, the amount of goods on hand is 1.21 months’ worth versus 1.24 months worth in June. Factory Orders should remain healthy over the intermediate-term.

Confidence among US consumers fell less than economists had previously expected in August. The expectations component of the index came in at 73.7 versus 81.5 in July. The current conditions component came in at 98.4 versus 104.5 prior. Consumers now expect inflation to rise 3.2% in one year versus expectations in July of a 3.4% gain. The average price of regular gasoline fell to $2.75/gallon in August versus $2.86/gallon in July. I continue to believe consumer confidence will rebound back to cycle highs over the intermediate-term as housing fears subside, the job market remains healthy, wages continue to substantially outpace inflation, interest rates remain historically low, inflation decelerates further and stocks resume their major uptrend.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

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Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

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Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s consumer prices declined for a sixth straight month in July, signaling the world’s second-largest economy has yet to beat deflation.
- The yen is falling against the dollar and the euro as speculation the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising interest rates next month spurred fund managers to send money abroad in search of higher returns.
- Federal Reserve daily average discount window lending to banks rose by $115 million in the past week to an average $1.32 billion, as banks used the central bank’s liquidity backstop.
- Dell Inc. posted profit and sales that beat analysts’ estimates after getting a boost in PC orders from retailers including Wal-Mart Stores(WMT).
- Mexican police evacuated the nation’s tallest skyscraper, the 59-story Torre Mayor in Mexico City, after a bomb threat and later found an explosive device in a car parked underground.
- Former Senator Fred Thompson, after months of flirting with a possible presidential run, will enter the 2008 Republican nomination contest next week with a Sept. 6 Internet announcement and five-day campaign tour through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, his organization said today.
- John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will likely avoid offering a direction on interest-rate policy at the central bank’s biggest conference.
- US Equity Preview.

Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC has sent letters to about 300 US companies seeking information on executive pay not disclosed in proxy statements.

USAToday.com:
- Some homeowners with risky “subprime” adjustable-rate mortgages will be able to refinance before they lose their home to foreclosure with the help of steps President Bush will announce Friday, senior administration officials said Thursday night.
- Toys R Us is recalling thousands of art sets made in China due to excessive levels of lead in some black watercolor paints.

CNNMoney.com:
- Google(GOOG), Microsoft(MSFT) and eBay(EBAY) are looking for engineers who can think on their feet. Here’s how they find them.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Raised (QLGC) to Neutral, target $14.
- Reiterated Buy on (MON), target $77.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.88%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.67%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
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Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
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Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
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Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (SKIL)/.07
- (UNFI)/.34

Upcoming Splits
- (NEOG) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Personal Income for July is estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in June.
- Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise .3% versus a .1% gain in June.
- The PCE Core for July is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in June.

9:45 am EST
- The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for August is estimated to fall to 53.0 versus 53.4 in July.

10:00 am EST
- The Fed’s Bernanke addresses the annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
- Factory Orders for July are estimated to rise 3.3% versus a .6% gain in June.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 82.5 versus a prior estimate of 83.3.

Other Potential Market Movers
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mostly Lower on Below Average Volume Ahead of Bernanke Speech and Economic Data

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
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Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
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In Play

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour Ahead of Bernanke Speech

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is slightly negative today as the advance/decline line is mildly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. My intraday gauge of investor angst is above-average levels. Growth stocks are once again substantially outperforming value stocks, with many leaders posting strong gains. The MS Tech Index is up 12% year-to-date, as well. There are rumors going around that Microsoft(MSFT) may attempt to buy Research In Motion (RIMM) to compete with Google. I find that prospect highly unlikely. I still think Google will exceed $600 by year-end on better-than-expected earnings and growth stock multiple expansion. The AAII percentage of bulls fell to 40.3% this week from 41.3% the prior week. This reading is below average levels. The AAII percentage of bears rose to 46.3% this week from 43.1% the prior week. This reading is approaching elevated levels. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently at 38.6%, a high level. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% at the major bear-market low during 2002. The 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 37.0%, an elevated level seen during only two other periods since tracking began in the 1980s. Those periods were October 1990-July 1991 and March 2003-May 2003, both of which were near major stock market bottoms. The extreme readings in the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during those periods peaked at 41.6% on Jan. 31, 1991, and 38.1% on April 10, 2003. We are currently very close to eclipsing the peak in bearish sentiment during the 2000-2003 market meltdown, which I still find astonishing, notwithstanding the recent correction. Here are a few other gauges showing significant bearishness despite the S&P 500's 4.2% gain off the recent lows:

1. The VIX is still at the highest level since April 2003.

2. The 10-week total put/call is 1.12, the highest level in history.

3. The 21-day ISE Sentiment Index reading is right near record lows at 103.0.

4. The 10-day Arms Index is a very high 1.27.

5. Domestic stock mutual funds continue to see significant outflows.

6. Money market fund assets are soaring to new record levels.

7. The three-month T-bill yield has plunged 108 basis points over the last four days as investors continue their flight to safety.

8. Both public and professional short interest readings are near record levels.

9. Index futures traders are positioned near historically net short levels.

Finally, insider buying is still near levels last seen right before the bull market took off in 2003. These readings are all indicative of a market that has put in place a meaningful bottom. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain hunting ahead of Dell’s report and Bernanke’s speech tomorrow.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Prices for previously owned single-family homes rose an average of 3.2% from a year earlier, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise said.
- Research In Motion(RIMM) rose to a record on the Nasdaq Stock Market amid speculation the maker of BlackBerry e-mail devices may be bought by Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), traders said.
- The UN found a small quantity of a toxic chemical discovered in Iraq a decade ago and stored by accident in the NYC office of the agency that searched the country for weapons.
- Tiffany & Co.(TIF) raised annual profit and revenue forecasts after second-quarter earnings exceeded analysts’ estimates and sales rose the most in seven years.
- Neil Hennessy, known for his “Dogs of the Dow” mutual fund, said the index of the largest US companies may rise as much as 15% through the end of the year.

Wall Street Journal:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL), whose iTunes store is the most popular source of online music, may release next week a new version of its iPod music player that has more features.

Washington Post:
- Terrorism Policies Split Democrats.

AP:
- Cruise companies and their passengers spent $17.6 billion in the US in 2006, up 9% over the prior year, citing a Cruise Lines Intl. Assoc. study.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- For the first time since 2003, New Jersey has no “persistently dangerous” schools, citing a state Education Department report.

Reuters:
- Dunkin’ Donuts plans to add about 10,000 franchised stores by 2020 as it expands into the western US from the Northeast.

El Pais:
- Industrialized countries with targets to curb air pollution under the Kyoto Treaty may agree to cut emissions in 2020 by up to 40% from 1990 levels, citing a draft agreement being negotiated in Vienna.

Xinhua:
- China’s gold production in the first seven months of the year climbed at the fastest pace in a decade, citing a forum organized by the China Gold Association.

2Q GDP Strong, 2Q Inflation Decelerates, Initial Jobless Claims Rise

- Preliminary 2Q GDP rose 4.0% versus estimates of a 4.1% increase and a prior estimate of a 3.4% gain.

- Preliminary 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.4% versus estimates of a 1.5% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.3% increase.

- Preliminary 2Q GDP Price Index rose 2.7% versus estimates of a 2.7% gain and a prior estimate of a 2.7% increase.

- Preliminary 2Q PCE rose 1.3% versus estimates of a 1.4% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.4% increase.

- Initial Jobless Claims rose to 334K versus estimates of 320K and 325K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims rose to 2579K versus estimates of 2575K and 2566K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: The US economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in more than a year as exports surged and business spending accelerated, Bloomberg said. Trade contributed 1.4 percentage points to growth, the most since 1996. Commercial construction rose 28%, the most in 26 years. The Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 1.3% during the quarter, the slowest increase in four years. Investment in equipment rose at a 4.3% rate, almost double the prior estimate. I expect growth to average about 2.5% in the second half of this year as exports remain strong and inflation decelerates further.

First-time applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average rose to 324,500 from 318,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, rose to 2.0% from 1.9% the prior week. While the labor market will likely loosen a bit more in the short-run, I expect it to remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon says the Fed is ready to cut rates at “anytime.”
- Malon Wilkus, CEO of American Capital Strategies, see opportunities in the buyout market.
- Australian business investment climbed three times as much as economists expected. Capital spending on equipment, buildings and plants rose 6.3% in the second quarter from the previous three months, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. Businesses plan to spend 11.5% more in the year ending June 30, 2008, than they predicted three months ago.
- South Korean manufacturers’ confidence rose to a 17-month high, suggesting companies may ramp up production and spur growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
- Corn fell for the fifth consecutive session on speculation that August rains will boost US production and dry weather in September will aid harvesting of record supplies.

Wall Street Journal:
- Yahoo! Inc.’s(YHOO) head of sales, Gregory Coleman, is resigning as part of a staff reorganization.

MarketWatch.com:
- Those who work at home or remotely report higher levels of satisfaction.
- Shares of US financial stocks rebounded modestly on Wednesday, after taking a pounding in the previous session, with Goldman Sachs(GS) leading gainers in the brokerage sector.

CNNMoney.com:
- Carlyle see credit storm calming. The fund, which invests in mortgage-backed securities, predicts “strong probability” for a dividend in the fourth quarter.

Reuters:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) shares rose more than 5% on Wednesday on growing expectations that the company will announce a revamped line of iPods next week.

Financial Times:
- Google’s YouTube agreed to a deal with the British societies that collect royalties for 50,000 songwriters, composers and publishers to legitimize the use of their recorded music on the video-sharing Web site.
- Dry bulk freight costs at record high.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- JC Penney’s(JCP) Back-to-School season is off to a strong start, supported by a fully integrated advertising campaign, improved merchandise flow driving newness, trend-right merchandise, and a multi-channel approach. We believe the company is optimistic on Holiday 2007 based on back-to-school trends thus far.
- Reiterated Buy on (SPSN), target $15.
- Reiterated Buy on (TEX), target $94.
- Reiterated Buy on (ADBE), target $50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BTH)/.12
- (CIEN)/.31
- (CPWM)/-.64
- (DLM)/.02
- (DELL)/.31
- (ESL)/.55
- (FRE)/.99
- (FCEL)/-.34
- (GCO/.30
- (HRB)/-.35
- (OVTI)/.19
- (SHLD)/1.13
- (TIF)/.35
- (WIND)/.04
- (ZLC)/-.08

Upcoming Splits
- (FTI) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

-Preliminary 2Q GDP is estimated to rise 4.1% versus a 3.4% prior estimate.
- Preliminary 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 1.5% versus a 1.3% prior estimate.
- Preliminary 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 2.7% versus a 2.7% prior estimate.
- Preliminary 2Q Core PCE is estimated to rise 1.4% versus a 1.4% prior estimate.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 320K versus 322K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2575K versus 2572K prior.

10:00 am EST
- The 2Q House Price Index is estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in 1Q.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (NVLS) mid-quarter update and Moody’s Perspective on the State of the Credit Markets could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Positive Earnings Reports, More Economic Optimism

Indices
S&P 500 1,463.76 +2.19%
DJIA 13,289.29 +1.90%
NASDAQ 2,563.16 +2.50%
Russell 2000 787.32 +2.54%
Wilshire 5000 14,693.51 +2.16%
Russell 1000 Growth 587.65 +2.29%
Russell 1000 Value 820.63 +2.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 713.12 +1.64%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,017.31 +2.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 626.77 +2.64%
Transports 4837.42 +2.21%
Utilities 487.87 +2.28%
MSCI Emerging Markets 130.18 +1.65%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .93 -27.91%
NYSE Arms .28 -92.78%
Volatility(VIX) 23.81 -9.47%
ISE Sentiment 100.00 +8.70%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 73.57 +2.57%
Reformulated Gasoline 210.15 +4.27%
Natural Gas 5.43 -2.91%
Heating Oil 204.33 +2.35%
Gold 676.20 +.40%
Base Metals 234.85 -.72%
Copper 335.35 +1.24%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +5 basis points
US Dollar 80.67 -.10%
CRB Index 306.83 +.78%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.75%
Computer Hardware +3.5%
Retail +3.5%

Lagging Sectors
Hospitals +1.16%
Restaurants +1.11%
HMOs +1.05%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:

- Reiterated Outperform on (GOOG), target $660.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Technology shares rallied, helping the US stock market recover from the steepest decline in three weeks and sending the Nasdaq Composite Index to its biggest advance in a year.
- US property and casualty insurers such as Chubb Corp. and Travelers face “minimal” risk of investment losses and no prospect of ratings downgrades this year from the subprime mortgage crisis, Fitch Ratings said.
- Most insurers and reinsurers face ‘negligible’ risk from the US subprime crisis, S&P said.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said relaxing portfolio limits on Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) isn’t necessary for the two largest US mortgage finance companies to help stem a surge in foreclosures.
- Global Hyatt Corp. said a group of investors including Goldman Sachs Holdings will buy a minority stake in the hotel operator for $1 billion.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) may introduce software to run mobile phones within the next eight weeks to promote its e-mail and mapping services, an analyst said.
- Ford Motor(F) is “in good shape financially” and has enough liquidity for its restructuring plan, CEO Mulally said.

MacRumors.com:
- German magazine Capital is reporting that talks between Apple(AAPL) and Volkswagen are in an early stage for a so-called “iCar.”

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Computer longs, Medical longs and Semi longs. I covered some more of my (EEM) short and my remaining (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above average into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. There were notable reversals higher in the financials and homebuilders today. Technology, energy and retail shares were especially strong. With so many shorts and underinvested bulls, it doesn't take much to send the market soaring. I don't think Bernanke's letter to Schumer that was released this afternoon said much that investors didn't already know, but it may have been the last straw for many that had hoped for a late-day swoon. I think the key to today's gains was mainly a result of data that showed consumer spending isn't collapsing. Positive comments from analysts on back-to-school PC sales were significant. As well, (WSM), (BIG) and (DLTR) had positive earnings reports. That doesn't mean consumer spending is at strong levels, but investors had been pricing in a dire back-to-school and holiday selling season. With PC sales healthy, that appears much more unlikely, in my opinion. Also important today, many market-leading stocks posted outsized gains, rising 3%-5%. I was too underexposed to the market when the day began. My style is geared around substantially outperforming the market on the upside and keeping downside risks in check. My hedges are not an attempt to make money on the downside, they are used to cut volatility. Those hedges serve their purpose over the long run. I am having one of my best years relative to the market, and I will continue to quickly cut market risk when my analysis and models dictate such a change is warranted to protect gains into year-end. My top three long positions, which I have frequently disclosed for two years, are Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). Those stocks are up +35.3%, +101.7% and +133.5%, respectively, over the last year. Today's gains here will likely lead to further gains in Asia tonight. The Nikkei futures are indicating an up 360 open in Japan tonight.

***Alert***

- I am having technical difficulties. I will try to post after the close.

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The world price of raw sugar, among the worst performing commodities this year, may fall further as oversupply will probably persist until 2009, Peter Baron, executive director of the International Sugar Organization, said.
- Brazil’s state-owned oil and gas company Petrobras announced Tuesday that it expects to start large-scale production of ethanol from cellulose between 2015 and 2020.
- The share of US residents classified as poor fell .3% to 12.3%, the Census Bureau said today. Median household income adjusted for inflation rose to $48,200.

NY Times:
- Politicians, regulators and financial specialists outside the US are seeking a role in the oversight of American markets, banks and rating agencies after recent problems related to subprime mortgages.

CNNMoney.com:
- Google: A safe haven stock?

Reuters:
- Problems in the US subprime mortgage market are unlikely to push the US economy into a recession over the next 12 months, the top economist for a leading US business group said on Tuesday.

Nikkei:
- Toshiba Corp. plans to speed up production of sensors used in mobile-phone cameras by a year to meet demand as handsets use higher resolution optics.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (MRVL), target $22.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (STX), target $33.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.25% to -1.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.19%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BIG)/.12
- (BWS)/.29
- (CHS)/.26
- (CTRN)/.05
- (CWTR)/.12
- (PSS)/.44
- (DLTR)/.33
- (ENER)/-.12
- (FRED)/.09
- (JAS)/-.66
- (JOYG)/.70
- (NOVL)/.02
- (SIGM)/.35
- (TIVO)/-.05
- (WSM)/.16

Upcoming Splits
- (FTI) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of -600,000 barrels versus a 1,890,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -2,500,000 barrels versus a -5,709,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by 800,000 barrels versus a 1,356,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, refinery utilization is estimated to remain unch. versus a -.2% decline the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Stocks Finish at Session Lows on Low Volume as Credit Fears Resurface

Indices
S&P 500 1,432.36 -2.35%
DJIA 13,041.85 -2.10%
NASDAQ 2,500.64 -2.37%
Russell 2000 767.83 -2.74%
Wilshire 5000 14,382.27 -2.34%
Russell 1000 Growth 574.52 -2.16%
Russell 1000 Value 804.13 -2.52%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 701.60 -1.82%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 991.80 -3.17%
Morgan Stanley Technology 610.63 -2.41%
Transports 4732.98 -2.75%
Utilities 477.01 -1.20%
MSCI Emerging Markets 128.04 -2.13%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.29 +35.79%
NYSE Arms 3.87 +184.17%
Volatility(VIX) 26.30 +15.8%
ISE Sentiment 92.0 -30.83%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.60 -.51%
Reformulated Gasoline 201.90 -1.04%
Natural Gas 5.67 +5.45%
Heating Oil 199.23 -.87%
Gold 671.80 -.65%
Base Metals 236.56 +1.12%
Copper 329.0 -1.97%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% -5 basis points
US Dollar 80.84 +.13%
CRB Index 304.44 -.38%

Leading Sectors
HMOs -.39%
Gaming -1.08%
Disk Drives -1.27%

Lagging Sectors
Engineering & Construction -3.6%
Steel -4.45%
Homebuilders -4.79%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
ThinkEquity:

- Upgraded (RNOW) to Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Corn fell the most in more than two weeks and soybeans declined as farmers in the South began their harvest, boosting US supplies that the government estimates will be 14% larger than last year.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) said CFO George Reyes will leave and the biggest Internet search engine company will replace him by year-end.
- NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd won their first endorsements from national labor unions, gaining coveted support in their bids for the Democratic presidential nomination.
- IndyMac Bancorp Inc.(IMB), the biggest US independent home lender, is hiring as many as 850 former employees of bankrupt American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. in a push to issue more loans to people with good credit.
- Seagate Technology(STX), the world’s largest make of hard-disk drives, boosted its sales and profit forecasts for the current quarter. The stock rose 5.5% in after-hours trading.
- Semtech(SMTC), a leading producer of high performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, reported net sales for the second quarter rose 3.3% yoy. The stock surged 8.5% in after-hours trading.
- PDL Biopharma(PDLI) will divest all its marketed products, stop developing its lead drug candidate and slash a “substantial” number of jobs in a strategic overhaul. The shares tumbled 15% in extended trading.

AP:
- New Jersey was surpassed by Maryland as the nation’s richest state, according to the latest US Census Bureau statistics.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Retail longs, Computer longs and Semi longs. I added to my (SII) short, (BHP) short and to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, every sector fell and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were elevated into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. In my opinion, the news today wasn't that bad, which makes today's losses more meaningful. As well, the 10-year yield is at session lows at 4.51%, and the yen is at session highs vs. the U.S. dollar. Cyclicals were especially weak today, falling 3.1%. Growth outperformed value, which could be pressuring quant funds again. Nikkei futures are indicating a down 387 open in Japan tonight. I expect stocks to make their lows for the week tomorrow.

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Credit, Housing Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I added to my (EEM) short and added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is below average. My intraday gauge of investor angst is back to elevated levels. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell more than estimates, but to put the home price decline into perspective, home prices are still 50.4% higher over the last five years and up 120.1% over the last 10. The Fed Aug. 7 minutes were just released. They said that growth estimates by staff economists had been cut and that strains in financial markets jeopardized the expansion. Further turmoil might require a response, they said. For the present, they said that the most likely outcome for the economy was continued moderate growth and that the upside risks to inflation remained the most significant policy concern. The Fed also said mortgage loans remained available to most potential borrowers and that the supply of credit to finance real investment did not appear significantly diminished. The market's initial reaction to these comments was slightly negative. I view them as a bit more constructive than anticipated. With the 10-year yield approaching 4.5%, the odds of an imminent rate cut are likely increasing rapidly. The Fed has a lot of firepower available. Recent Fed actions meaningfully improved credit anxieties. I think a fed funds rate cut would help even more. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The global economy is “very healthy” and losses from the US subprime mortgage slump have “almost passed,” said Mark Mobius, who oversees $30 billion at Templeton Asset Management Ltd in Singapore.
- Gold and silver are falling for a second day on concern that a slump in global equity markets will reduce investment demand for the precious metals.

- OPEC doesn’t need to increase crude oil production because market supplies are sufficient, OPEC Secretary General Abdulla El-Badri said today.

Wall Street Journal:
- Rich Alumni Stiff Elite Alma Maters, Give to Needier Colleges.

AP:
- Pennsylvania’s welfare rolls have declined to below 1960s levels as job-training and child-care programs allowed more people to enter the workforce.

Financial Times:
- A private bank has seen an increase, since the start of the stock market upheaval, in the number of senior executives wanting to take out “jumbo loans” to buy shares or make investments.

Reuters:
- The Fed acknowledged at its last regular meeting that a policy response might be necessary if financial market conditions worsened, show minutes of its August 7 meeting.

Daily Telegraph:
- Taking cheap drugs designed to lower cholesterol could reduce the risk of developing Alzheimer’s by 80%, scientists say.

Consumer Confidence Falls Less Than Expected

- Consumer Confidence for August fell to 105.0 versus estimates of 104.0 and 111.9 in July.

BOTTOM LINE: Consumer Confidence fell less than economists expected in August, Bloomberg reported. Consumer Confidence is now back to levels seen in June, but still up from 100.2 hit in August of last year. The Present Conditions component of the index fell to 130.3 from 138.3 the prior month. Present Conditions are still well above the long-term average of 113.2. The Expectations component fell to 88.2 versus 94.4 in July. I still expect confidence to move back to cycle highs over the intermediate-term as the job market remains healthy, incomes continue to outpace inflation, inflation decelerates further, interest rates remain historically low, energy prices decline further, housing fears subside and stocks resume their major uptrend.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Monday, August 27, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Volatility on currency options fell further from the eight-year high touched this month as concern eases that a US housing slump is spreading.
- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A) boosted its stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.(BNI), the second-largest US railroad, by 24%.

- Asustek Computer shares rose the most in a month after the Taiwan computer-parts maker more than doubled its second-quarter profit on laptop orders.
- A new international university aims to improve technology education in North Korea as tensions appear to be easing between the reclusive communist country and the rest of the world.

MarketWatch.com:
- This bull’s pawing the ground. Commentary: Band sees market rising as much as 30% by November 2008.

USAToday.com:
- Gas prices hit 5-month low heading into holiday weekend.

NY Times:
- Late to Web Retailing? There’s Still Money There.
- Bigger Than Las Vegas? That’s Macao’s Bet.

UPI:
- End in Sight for US Subprime Crisis?

Financial Times:
- Renaissance Technologies, the $30 billion hedge fund run by billionaire mathematician James Simons, is considering selling a minority stake to a big outside investor or group of investors in coming weeks.
- The number of foreign students accepted by US graduate schools has risen for a third consecutive year, according to a survey to be released on Tuesday.

Times of India:
- Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd., India’s biggest drugmaker, may buy US-based Bradley Pharmaceuticals(BDY) for as much as $300 million.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (SYY), target $39.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ARUN)/.00
- (BGP)/-.33
- (CMED)/.25
- (COCO)/.03
- (DY)/.32
- (MCRS)/.70
- (NX)/1.00
- (SAFM)/1.93
- (SMTC)/.15
- (NCTY)/.36

Upcoming Splits
- SSYS 2-for-1
- TISI 2-for-1
- FTI 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 104.0 versus 112.6 in July.

2:00 pm EST
- Minutes of August 7 FOMC Meeting.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Case-Shiller 2Q Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, weekly retail sales reports and (NLC) Annual Investor Day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.