Monday, August 20, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- OPEC members may increase oil supplies without raising its official quotas to ease concern that production isn’t keeping up with demand, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. “We believe that another 300,000 barrels a day or more is likely to lead out in September as key Arab Gulf members inject their own ‘liquidity’ into the oil markets as they undoubtedly have been asked to do by central bankers around the world,” said Adam Sieminski, a Deutsche Bank analyst.
- The yen declined for a third day against the euro and dollar as gains in global stock markets prompted investors to resume buying higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.

Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC filed civil fraud charges against investment adviser Sentinel Management Group, a development that could rewrite the history of last week’s market turmoil. Early last week, Sentinel, a company that manages short-term cash for hedge funds and futures brokers, told clients it was halting redemptions because of the "liquidity crisis" in the credit markets. The news contributed to a 207.61-point fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average when it became public Tuesday, and added to the sense of fear that gripped credit and stock markets all week long. According to a person familiar with the investigation, the SEC claims Sentinel's woes are a case of fraud disguised as a casualty of the markets.
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Viacom Inc.’s(VIA/B) MTV Networks plans to announce tomorrow that it is forming a joint venture with RealNetworks(RNWK) to sell digital music online.

MarketWatch.com:
- Most economists believe Fed will cut at or before its Sept. 18 meeting.
­- Legg Mason fund manager taps mid-sized firms in strong financial shape.

CNNMoney.com:
- These MBA programs blend real-world small-business know-how with top academics.
- Milk prices seen slipping in the fall.
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The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee will confer with the chiefs of the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department on Tuesday in an effort to hatch solutions to ongoing turmoil in the financial and mortgage markets.

Financial Times:
- Asian stocks extended gains on Tuesday as credit concerns eased and a softer yen buoyed Japanese exporters, while a move by China to let residents invest directly in Hong Kong securities gave the Hang Seng Index a boost.
- The movement of crude oil and natural gas prices in the past two weeks has caught the energy market by surprise as hedge funds liquidate their positions en masse and cause a sudden change in the directions the prices, analysts say.
- The safety problems affecting Chinese goods spread from toys to textiles on Monday as New Zealand said it would investigate allegations that imported children’s clothes contained dangerous levels of formaldehyde.
- China’s capital markets on Monday took a significant step towards integration with the rest of the world when Beijing announced it would allow individuals directly to buy securities offshore for the first time.

Reuters:
- Cisco(CSCO) CEO reiterates upbeat view on economy.
- US regulator says watching Countrywide(CFC) versus closely.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (LTR), target $58.
- Target’s(TGT) August sales are off to a solid start, based on results for the first two weeks of August. We believe that sales of seasonal items have been off to a good start as consumers begin their Back-to-School shopping. In addition, we believe that traffic has picked up as a result of the Tax Free Holidays in August. Target continues to expect August comps to increase in the range of 4-6% versus 2.8% last year.
- Reiterated Buy on (LOW), target $41.
- Reiterated Buy on (MRVL), target $21.
- Reiterated Buy on (SPNC), target raised to $19.

Night Trading

Asian Indices are +.75% to +1.5% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ACS)/.87
- (AEOS)/.36
- (ADI)/.37
- (BJ)/.41
- (DKS)/.76
- (DRYS)/1.37
- (JKHY)/.31
- (MDT)/.61
- (MYGN)/-.19
- (PBY)/.10
- (SKS)/-.16
- (SPLS)/.25
- (TGT)/.80
- (TOL)/.02

Upcoming Splits
- (TXT) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Lacker speaking, EnerCom Oil & Gas Conference and weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by automaker and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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