Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher, Led by "Growth" Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,447.12 +.11%
DJIA 13,090.86%
NASDAQ 2,521.30 +.51%
Russell 2000 788.38 +.12%
Wilshire 5000 14,534.04 +.16%
Russell 1000 Growth 576.49 +.21%
Russell 1000 Value 816.82 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 707.28 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,005.96 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 615.29 +.73%
Transports 4,822.43 -.68%
Utilities 491.45 +.68%
MSCI Emerging Markets 122.40 +.13%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .89 -3.26%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -17.75%
Volatility(VIX) 25.25 -4.10%
ISE Sentiment 135.0 +17.39%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 69.47 -2.32%
Reformulated Gasoline 187.25 -3.30%
Natural Gas 5.86 -2.95%
Heating Oil 195.50 -1.31%
Gold 667.20 +.11%
Base Metals 226.28 -1.81%
Copper 317.0 +.22%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% -4 basis points
US Dollar 81.50 +.12%
CRB Index 299.77 -.74%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.53%
Engineering & Construction +2.22%
Gaming +1.72%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.36%
Energy -1.42%
Coal -1.51%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
CSFB:

- Upgraded (CP) to Outperform.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Robert Olstein, who oversees $2.1 billion as chief investment officer at Olstein Capital Management, said the “worst is over” for US stocks.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) shareholders approved an $8.2 billion buyout led by billionaire Sam Zell and must now wait to see if his purchase of the second-largest US newspaper publisher can be completed as planned.
- Whole Foods Market’s(WFMI) proposed takeover of Wild Oats(OATS) doesn’t break antitrust laws because the two largest natural-foods grocers compete against other chains, a judge ruled in allowing the purchase to proceed.
- Gasoline futures in NY fell to the lowest in more than five months as Hurricane Dean weakened over the Yucatan Peninsula and moved toward southern Mexico, well away from US oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Wall Street Journal:
- Delta Air Lines Inc.(DAL) is expected today to name Richard Anderson, a former CEO of Northwest Airlines Corp., as its new CEO.

Hitwise:
- Google(GOOG) got 64% of US searches in July, Yahoo!(YHOO) got 22.1% and MSN 8.8%.

Financial Times:
- Wilbur Ross, the US financier who specializes in distressed businesses, is planning a push into subprime mortgages in a sign the credit turmoil is opening up opportunities for bargain-hunting, risk-taking investors.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile unit agreed to cede a 10th of revenue earned from iPhone sales in Germany to Apple Inc.(AAPL).

Handelsblatt:
- Infineon Technologies AG, Europe’s second-biggest maker of semiconductors, plans additional acquisitions, citing CEO Wolfgang Ziebart.
- Germany’s banking system is “stable” and lenders have no liquidity shortages, chief economist at Allianz AG said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Computer longs, Internet longs, Medical longs and Energy-related shorts. I added to my Energy-related shorts and added a new long in (ILMN) in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished mildly higher, most sectors rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were above-average into the close. Today's overall market action was modestly bullish. I-banks traded pretty well throughout the day, which always helps. Moreover, I think the accelerated decline in oil that I forecast during the many $100-per-barrel calls has begun, which should greatly help the broad market over the intermediate-term. It also gives the Fed more leeway to act without having to worry as much about inflation. Oil would likely bounce on any new hurricane threats to energy infrastructure in the Gulf, however, traders would likely use any short-term strength to unload near-record long positions. Growth stock leaders were especially strong again today. There are many more companies than are generally recognized, in my opinion, that have strong growth with reasonable valuations. Hundreds of growth stocks that I monitor with good fundamentals and low valuations jumped 2%-4% today with the S&P 500 barely higher. The market dipped this afternoon on comments by the Fed's Lacker. He said that the predominant concern is the market's impact on consumer spending and that he sees a small likelihood of a market rout hurting spending. He said that there is still a risk that inflation won't moderate but that recent inflation figures are encouraging. He also said that Fed policy must be guided by the economic outlook and that the prospects for business investment are still quite positive. Let's also not forget that Poole made some hawkish statements right before the Fed cut the discount rate. I think it is very important to focus intensely on what the Fed is actually doing rather than what various members say.

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