- Leading Indicators for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a -.3% decline in June.
BOTTOM LINE: The index of leading US economic indicators rebounded in July, propelled by gains in consumer confidence and stock prices, Bloomberg reported. 6 of the 10 indicators in today’s report helped to boost the gauge. Money supply adjusted for inflation, which has the largest weighting in the index, added .8 percentage points. As well, Jobless Claims below the 313,000 average for 2006, together with an unemployment rate at a historically low level, provides evidence of a resilient job market and is helping to add to the index. I still expect US economic growth to average around 2.5% the final two quarters of the year as the trade deficit shrinks, companies rebuild depleted inventories and inflation subsides further.
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