Monday, August 27, 2007

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Low Volume Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is mildly negative today as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, most sectors are declining and volume is light. My intraday gauge of investor angst is still above average levels. Overall, net insider buying remains at levels normally associated with meaningful market bottoms. It is also interesting to note that Bloomberg reported today that insider buying in financial firms is the highest in 12 years. Please read this if you haven't had a chance yet. I continue to believe this is very significant and is being mostly ignored in the current climate of fear. Chinese stocks have been top performers since the beginning of the global correction, despite weakness in other emerging markets. It is also noteworthy that the Chinese ADRs traded here are absolutely exploding higher. Take a look at the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI). It is up a stunning 37% in eight days. This move came with short interest in the security at record levels. As much as I think many Chinese stocks are at bubble valuations, it is hard to envision another meaningful global or U.S. market downturn from current levels while so many China-related stocks are soaring. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain hunting.

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