Monday, August 20, 2007

Stocks Finish Mildly Higher on Healthy Consolidation of Friday's Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,445.55 -.03%
DJIA 13,121.35 +.32%
NASDAQ 2,508.59 +.14%
Russell 2000 787.45 +.18%
Wilshire 5000 14,510.86 +.08%
Russell 1000 Growth 575.30 +.20%
Russell 1000 Value 815.69 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 707.47 unch.
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,003.52 +1.40%
Morgan Stanley Technology 610.84 -.03%
Transports 4,855.47 +1.83%
Utilities 488.12 +.15%
MSCI Emerging Markets 122.26 +1.23%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .92 -24.59%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +85.57%
Volatility(VIX) 26.33 -12.20%
ISE Sentiment 116.0 -10.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.0 -1.38%
Reformulated Gasoline 193.37 -5.2%
Natural Gas 6.03 -13.97%
Heating Oil 198.17 -1.76%
Gold 667.70 +.13%
Base Metals 230.46 +2.88%
Copper 318.0 +1.03%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.63% -5 basis points
US Dollar 81.38 -.06%
CRB Index 301.99 -1.36%

Leading Sectors
Road & Rail +3.34%
Defense +1.90%
REITs +1.62%

Lagging Sectors
Insurance -.83%
I-Banks -.97%
Banks -1.44%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Needham:
- Rated (APKT) Buy, target $19.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC) bonds are trading at distressed levels, reflecting investor fear and not the mortgage lender’s financial performance, according to a Citigroup analyst.
- The risk of owning corporate bonds, led by Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC) and Radian Group(RDN), fell for a third day on optimism central banks will fend off a credit crunch, according to traders of credit-default swaps.
-
Crude oil fell almost $1/bbl. after forecasts showed Hurricane Dean would probably miss the largest USGulf of Mexico.
oil-production regions of the
- Target Corp.(TGT) said sales at store open at least a year may rise as much as 6% in August, within its forecast range.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Semi longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished mildly higher, most sectors rose and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were above-average into the close. Today's overall market action was modestly bullish. Financials and homebuilders were really the only two areas of weakness today, however, they only gave back a small portion of Thursday/Friday gains. The CRB Index fell again today and is back to where it was in March 2005. Natural gas plunged 14.4% and gasoline dropped 5.2%. I continue to believe inflation fears have peaked for this cycle and gauges will continue to show substantial deceleration over the intermediate term. Many growth stock leaders posted exceptional gains, rising 3%-5% today relative to the broad market. Just take a look at Research In Motion (RIMM), Baidu (BIDU), Crocs (CROX) and Garmin (GRMN), for example. This trend is still in its infancy, in my opinion, as global growth slows to more average rates and inflation subsides further. The Associated Press is reporting that the chief of Samsung's investor relations team said that the demand for DRAM and NAND chips is really strong and that the company can raise contract prices. He expects the price of memory chips to go through the roof and the operating profit in the companies' memory chip business to double or triple from the prior quarter. This is another positive for the sector. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Sector Index is 5.4% higher year-to-date. I expect the group to continue to outperform the broad market through year-end. Broadcom (BRCM), SanDisk (SNDK) and Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates (VSEA) are three of my favorites. The NYSE Arms ran at high levels most of the day, and volume was light. This indicates to me a healthy consolidation of recent gains, and it shouldn't take much buying to push the averages higher.

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