Saturday, June 30, 2018

Today's Headlines

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on  (COST), (EA), (MA), (GGG), (DNKN), (VC), (BLK), (FB), (VZ), (MNST) and (UTX).
Zero Hedge: 

Friday, June 29, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,736.71 -.61%





















The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 24,387.20 -.68%
  • NASDAQ 7,539.49 -1.92%
  • Russell 2000 1,649.83 -2.10%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 43.30 -2.10%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 161.74 -3.51%
  • Wilshire 5000 28,452.15 -.96%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,450.76 -1.07%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,196.47 -.34%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 531.43 +.22%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.5937 -4.29%
  • NYSE Technology 1,899.98 -2.10%
  • Transports 10,408.20 -3.36%
  • Utilities 713.60 +2.44%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 87.43 -1.71%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.39 -1.66%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,268.58 -1.09%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,007.87 +.07%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 322,557 -.29%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -580 -514
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 52.0 +92.38%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 580,947 -2.41%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,458,404 -2.62%
  • Total Put/Call 1.18 +37.7%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.13 +352.50%
  • ISE Sentiment 98.0 -17.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.29 -23.89%
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.25 +10.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.50 +13.39%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.47 unch. 
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.81 +.82%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,705.18 -1.73%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.825 Trillion +.81%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.865 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 28.5 -26.5%
  • AAII % Bears 40.8 +55.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 200.68 +1.55%
  • Crude Oil 74.23 +7.06%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 217.40 +4.90%
  • Natural Gas 2.93 -.44%
  • Heating Oil 220.75 +3.76%
  • Gold 1,254.90 -1.26%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 202.86 -1.35%
  • Copper 295.25 -2.49%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 333.33 USD/Metric Tonne -1.56%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Lumber 567.0 +1.38%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 961.38 -.97%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.8% -90.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.8% -20.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0134 -18.79% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 88.80 +.84%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 167.70 +.28%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.90 -8.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.0 +7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.70 +6.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 79.3% chance of no change, 20.7% chance of 25 basis point hike on 8/1
  • US Dollar Index 94.61 +.06%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,622.93 -.83%
  • Bitcoin/USD 5,882.85 -3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.68 +.95%
  • Yield Curve 30.75 -5.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.83% -8.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.266 Trillion -.26%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.75 +3.1%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 205.45 -1.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 237.75 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 14.97 +9.1%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.11 +3.2%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.41 +.02%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 48.95 +7.87%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 141.66 +2.30%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.79 -1.19%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 42.25 +.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.27 +3.38%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 398.0 -2.08%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 89.96 +9.43%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 190.74 +5.28%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.642 Trillion -.54%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,085.1 -1.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 222,000 +1,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.55% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 365.30 -4.89%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 57.30 +.8 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.0% -50.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.85/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,329.0 -.90%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 815.89 +.46%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 288,876 +.18%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Utilities +2.6%
  • Oil Service +1.6%
  • Energy +1.3%
  • Homebuilders +.9%
  • REITs +.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Shipping -3.2% 
  • Semis -3.6%
  • Restaurants -4.0%
  • I-Banks -4.0%
  • Airlines -4.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)
  • INNT, SEP, EEP, EEQ, PBYI, AVAV, EGAN and BCEI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)
  • ELF, THC, TUSK and SNX
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less European Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -9.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.67 +1.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.81 -1.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.42 +3.31%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -5.71%
  • Total Put/Call 1.19 -8.46%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 -23.89%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.03 -1.49%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 -.87%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.96 -4.21%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 237.75 -8.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.0 +1.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.32 +.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.79 -.64%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 42.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.54 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.91% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 31.75 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.90 -2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.0 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.70 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 unch.
  • 77.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 77.9% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long