Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 
  • Asia Stocks Rise, Japanese Bond Yields Head Higher. Asian equities climbed at the open as investors sifted through the latest news on the U.S.-China trade front and positive results from Apple Inc. Japanese bond yields rose after the central bank said it would allow more flexibility in yield movements. Stocks rose in Japan and South Korea, and Hang Seng Index futures in Hong Kong climbed. In a move seen as pressuring China back to the negotiating table, the Trump administration will propose raising to 25 percent its planned 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, three people familiar with the internal deliberations said. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index capped a fourth monthly gain after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and China were trying to restart talks aimed at averting a full-blown trade war. The offshore yuan fell. Topix index rose 0.6 percent as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was flat. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.5 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.3 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were flat. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.3 percent.  
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.25 -.5 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.96 unch.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.26%
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ADP)/.90
  • (BG)/1.04
  • (CHK)/.15
  • (HUM)/3.78
  • (PBI)/.26
  • (UTHR)/3.42
After the Close:
  • (APA)/.39
  • (CF)/.45
  • (BLUE)/2.46
  • (ESRX)/2.20
  • (MET)/1.17
  • (SGMS)/-.03
  • (SQ)/.11
  • (RGR)/.83
  • (TDOC)/-.36
  • (TSLA)/-2.81
  • (X)/1.12
  • (WMB)/.18
  • (WYNN)/1.97
  • (XPO)/.98
Economic Releases 
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated to rise to 186K versus 177K in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
  • ISM Manufacturing for July is estimated to fall to 59.3 versus 60.2 in June.
  • ISM Prices Paid for July is estimated to fall to 75.3 versus 76.8 in June.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,261,920 barrels versus a -6,147,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,947,820 barrels versus a -2,328,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +125,550 barrels versus a -101,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.68% versus a -.5% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 1.75-2.0%.
Afternoon
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for July are estimated to fall to 17.05M versus 17.38M in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (F) July sales conference call could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Worries, Earnings Outlooks, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Defense Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.28 -6.87%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.15 +.64%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.05 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.27 +4.67%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +46.25%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -18.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +91.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.37 -.83%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 358.0 -.80%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.94 -3.82%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 227.75 -6.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.92 -7.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.73 +1.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.88 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.25 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.02 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.02% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 29.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.20 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.90 +1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 unch.
  • 82.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 83.5% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +87 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +141 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -.4% 2) Banks -.3% 3) Foods -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GDS, PDD, LL, IPGP, INST, VRNS, FDP, LASR, CMG, GLT, ACHC, TXRH, SHOP, FFWM, BLKB, IIVI and RMBS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RLGY 2) MAS 3) AKS 4) P 5) CMG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CSLT 2) CMG 3) TSN 4) TAL 5) FFWM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +2.6% 2) Defense +2.3% 3) Industrials +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AJRD, SSD, IGV, NTRI, HSII, CGNX, MEDP, CSII, LMNR, KLAC, MX, ILMN, TREX, CHGG, ULH, ATTU, IIIN, AEIS, BAH, KNL, TRTN, NOBL, SF, ALSN, QTNA, MEDP, CSII, ALSN, EAF, XYL, FCE/A, WDR, AMC, CHGG, MBI, UMRX, SF, IGT, NTRI, KMB, BAH, ECHO, IDTI, CRCM, ASMB, QCOM, AVX and AEIS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ZNGA 2) HBI 3) ADM 4) PGNX 5) CY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ILMN 2) DE 3) BAH 4) HRS 5) JCI
Charts: