Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.S.-China Trade Talks Grind to a Halt.  

• Electric Vehicle Surge Poised to Test U.K. Grid for Decades.

• Asia Stocks Set for Mixed Start; Oil Plunges. Asia stocks are set for a muted start to trading Thursday as investor concerns around a trade war between the U.S. and China showed little sign of abating. The dollar rose and crude oil plunged the most in two years. Equity futures in Japan pointed to modest gains while those in Hong Kong and Sydney signaled slight declines. The S&P 500 dropped the most in two weeks, as energy and material producers tumbled on renewed angst that the Trump administration’s trade stance willdamp demand for commodities. Oil’s retreat took West Texas crude toward $70 a barrel, while metals and crop futures also slid. The dollar saw the biggest rise in a month, while the Japanese yen and Chinese offshore yuan dropped. Ten-year Treasury yields were little changed. Futures on the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent in Singapore. SPI 200 futures fell 0.1 percent. Hang Seng futures fell 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.1 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Bond Traders Now Betting Rate Cut Just as Likely as Hike in 2020.  

• Fed’s John Williams Says Low Unemployment Is Spurring More Job Training.  

• Stocks Quants Are Reeling From the Worst Run in 8 Years.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Urges NATO to Double Military-Spending Target. 

• Senate’s First Skirmish Over Supreme Court Pick: How Quickly to Move.

• Thai Cave Rescue, Before Its Triumph, Teetered on the Brink of Disaster.

• ZTE Poised to Resume Business With U.S. Suppliers.

• Twitter Follower Numbers to Drop as It Removed Locked Accounts.

• Metals Slide Deepens as Trade Fears Escalate.

MarketWatch.com:

• The 7 reasons behind U.S. oil’s sharpest daily point drop in almost 3 years.

Fox News:

• Partisan opposition to president’s Supreme Court picks intensifies big-time under Trump.

CNBC:   

• Broadcom(AVGO) to acquire CA Technologies(CA) for $18.9 billion.

• Tesla whistleblower retains law firm famous for winning $22.5 million Monsanto suit.

• China has its currency to use as a weapon in trade war with Trump.

• Comcast increases cash offer for Sky to $34 billion, topping Twenty-First Century Fox. 

• After-hours buzz: AVGO, CA & more.

• Trump's China trade bashing gives new hope for NAFTA progress.

Zero Hedge:

• Lisa Page Lying About Access To FBI Docs In Excuse To Bail On Testimony: Meadows.

• US-China Trade Negotiations Have Collapsed.

• Seven Takeaways From The US Tariff Escalation.

• In Unprecedented Move, Rosenstein Asks 100s Of Prosecutors To Review SCOTUS Pick's Records.

• Trump Doubles Down: Threatens Sanctions On European Investors In Russian Pipeline.

• Trade War Becomes "Tech War" As Trump Cracks Down On China's Rare Earth Metals.

• Trump Slams NATO: "Pay 2% Of GDP IMMEDIATELY" Or Even 4%.

• Bond Bears Reach Record High As Big Money Managers Bet Billions On 'Growth'.

• Parkland Survivors Sue Broward Law Enforcement Officials; Allege Incompetence, Poor Training And Cowardice.

• Trump Tariff Threat Sparks Commodity Carnage, Yield Curve Crash, Stock Slump.

Business Insider:

• New Zealand and China are butting heads over Beijing's growing influence.

• Mexico's new president will probably keep its secretive billion-dollar oil hedge going.

• Social security and Medicare could add trillions to the national debt.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 +2.25 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.38 +.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (CBSH)/.89

• (DAL)/1.72

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 225K versus 231K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1730K versus 1739K prior.

• The CPI MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.

• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.

• Real Avg. Hourly Earnings for June.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for June is estimated at -$80.0B versus -$146.8B in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report, $14B 30Y T-Bond auction, WasDe Crop report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, FCC Open Meeting and the (BKE)/(CATO)/(LB) Monthly Sales reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.