Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Asia Stocks Set for Mixed Start; Oil Plunges. Asia stocks are set for a muted start to trading Thursday as investor concerns around a trade war between the U.S. and China showed little sign of abating. The dollar rose and crude oil plunged the most in two years. Equity futures in Japan pointed to modest gains while those in Hong Kong and Sydney signaled slight declines. The S&P 500 dropped the most in two weeks, as energy and material producers tumbled on renewed angst that the Trump administration’s trade stance willdamp demand for commodities. Oil’s retreat took West Texas crude toward $70 a barrel, while metals and crop futures also slid. The dollar saw the biggest rise in a month, while the Japanese yen and Chinese offshore yuan dropped. Ten-year Treasury yields were little changed. Futures on the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent in Singapore. SPI 200 futures fell 0.1 percent. Hang Seng futures fell 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.1 percent.
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 +2.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.75 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.38 +.03%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Before the Open:
  • (CBSH)/.89
  • (DAL)/1.72
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 225K versus 231K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1730K versus 1739K prior.
  • The CPI MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  • Real Avg. Hourly Earnings for June.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for June is estimated at -$80.0B versus -$146.8B in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report, $14B 30Y T-Bond auction, WasDe Crop report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, FCC Open Meeting and the (BKE)/(CATO)/(LB) Monthly Sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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