Thursday, July 26, 2018

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlooks, Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.24 -.41%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.8 -.49%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.02 +1.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 28.4 +5.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +2.9%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -7.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +21.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.95 -2.74%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 367.0 -.49%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.84 -5.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 230.0 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.33 -3.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 164.59 -.95%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.04 +.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 34.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.85 -.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.98% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 29.25 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.95 USD/Metric Tonne +2.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.80 +3.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.2 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 unch.
  • 80.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 81.3% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +63 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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