Friday, July 27, 2018

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Earnings Outlooks, Fed Rate Hike Worries, Profit-Taking, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +9.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.57 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.02 -.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.6 +7.15%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +7.54%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +41.1%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -32.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.4 +.77%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 360.0 -1.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.54 +3.75%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 234.25 +4.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.97 -2.60%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.41 -1.10%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.54 +.33%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 35.25 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.97 +.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.99% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 28.75 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.89 USD/Metric Tonne -.87%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.10 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.80 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.7 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1.0 basis point
  • 80.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 81.3% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -97 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -49 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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