Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Trump, Juncker Tout Deal Pulling Back From U.S.-EU Trade War.  

• Metals Markets See Zero-Tariff Future on Trump-Juncker Meeting.  

• PBOC Is Said to Ease Bank Capital Rule to Boost Loan Growth.   

• Surging Hong Kong Stock Buybacks May Signal Rebound on Horizon.

• South Korea Economy Maintains Growth Momentum as Exports Hold Up.

• SK Hynix Posts Record Profit on Resilient Chip Demand.

• How Traders Have Changed Since the Massive Selloff Earlier This Year.

• Asian Stocks Gain on Trade Deal; Yen Advances. Asian stocks climbed, tracking gains in U.S. shares, after President Donald Trump reached an agreement with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker aimed at averting a transatlantic trade war. The yen climbed and the dollar retained its losses. Equities from Tokyo to Hong Kong advanced after the S&P 500 Index rose to within 1 percent of a fresh record high, with the two sides agreeing to suspend new tariffs while negotiating over trade. The yield on 10-year Treasuries edged lower while the Japanese equivalent ticked up to levels matching those reached at the start of this week amid speculation the Bank of Japan is paving the way for a change in policy. The offshore yuan strengthened amid signs of further policy easing. Weak sales at Facebook dragged Nasdaq futures lower. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.8 percent as of 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.6 percent. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.9 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index slid 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge gained 0.9 percent Wednesday. Nasdaq futures sank 0.6 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. 

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S., Europeans Agree to Iron Out Trade Differences.

• ObamaCare Is Robbing Medicaid’s Sickest Patients.

• National Enquirer’s Yearslong Dealings With Trump Lawyer Fall Under Federal Scrutiny.

MarketWatch.com:

• Even if short of specifics, the Trump-Juncker agreement is significant.

• These 7 luxury stocks are safe from any trade war.

• AMD(AMD) stock rises after best earnings in 7 years. 

Fox News:

• Group of 11 House Republicans introduce articles of impeachment against Deputy AG.

CNBC:  

• Europe will import more US natural gas, Trump and Juncker say after meeting.

• Facebook(FB) plunges more than 24 percent on revenue miss and projected slowdown.

• Trump, EU agree to work on lowering tariffs, averting a potential trade war.

• Qualcomm(QCOM) says it will terminate NXP(NXPI) deal by end of day and buy back $30 billion of stock.

• After-hours buzz: FB, F & more.

• PayPal(PYPL) earnings top estimates, but revenue outlook falls short. 

• Biogen and Eisai say Alzheimer’s treatment slowed disease progression, backing amyloid theory.

Zero Hedge: 

• We Have A Deal: Trump And Juncker Agree To Avert A Trade War.

• China Announces New Stimulus Measures.

• A South Carolina Nuclear Fuel Plant Has Leaked Radioactive Pollution.

• LifeLock Bug Exposed Millions of Customer Email Addresses.

• Appeals Court Upholds Open Carry, Finds Hawaii Infringed On Gun Owner's Rights.

• And The Most Popular Hedge Fund Stock Is...

• YouTube Slaps Infowars With Another Strike, Termination Warning.

• The Art of The Deal Sends Stocks Soaring.

Business Insider:

• Facebook's(FB) market value plunged by $148 billion after Zuckerberg and company warned of a growth slowdown.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 -4.25 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.17 +.08%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.24%

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.67%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (APD)/1.84

• (ALK)/1.63

• (ALXN)/1.70

• (AB)/.59

• (MO)/1.00

• (AAL)/1.59

• (BUD)/1.12

• (BAX)/.71

• (BWA)/1.10

• (BMY)/.87

• (CELG)/2.11

• (CME)/1.72

• (CMCSA)/.60

• (COP)/1.10

• (DHI)/1.08

• (IP)/1.10

• (LLL)/2.30

• (LEA)/4.99

• (MA)/2.53

• (MLM)/2.87

• (MCD)/1.92

• (MCK)/2.89

• (NEM)/.24

• (PX)/1.70

• (PHM)/.74

• (RTN)/2.36

• (LUV/1.24

• (UA)/-.08

• (VLO)/1.98

After the Close:

• (AFL)/.99

• (AMZN)/2.53

• (AMGN)3.56

• (BZH)/.39

• (CMG)/2.81

• (DECK)-1.42

• (EA)/.06

• (EXPE)/.90

• (FII)/.59

• (FSLR)/-.03

• (INTC)/.97

• (JNPR)/.44

• (LRCX)/4.94

• (SBUX)/.60

• (WDC)/3.51

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$67.0B versus -$64.8B in May.

• Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in May.

• Retail Inventories MoM for June.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 207K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1733K versus 1751K prior.

• Durable Goods Orders for June are estimated to rise +3.0% versus a -.4% decline in May.

• Durables Ex Transports for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in May.

• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in May.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to fall to 25.0 versus 28.0 om June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Rate Decision/Press Conference, Japan CPI report, Australian Import/Export Price reports, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the $30B 7Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.