Friday, July 06, 2018

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.64 -8.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.99 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.46 -.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.58 -1.33%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +23.81%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +3.30%
  • NYSE Arms .64 -22.10%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.55 -2.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 397.0 -.10%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.23 -2.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 242.50 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.99 +.40%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.16 -1.60%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.28 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.97 +.44%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.94% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 28.5 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 62.62 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.60 +2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.10 +9.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.40 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
  • 81.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 82.6% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +77 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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