Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -4.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.06 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.86 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.45 -3.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 +86.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +2.83%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 -5.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.37 -.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 400.0 -.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.92 -2.43%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.0 -1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.19 -1.97%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.99 -2.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.07 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.0 -5.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.40 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.97% +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 30.5 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.12 USD/Metric Tonne +.11%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.90 +3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.10 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.40 +2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point
  • 77.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 77.9% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -111 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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