Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Worries, Earnings Outlooks, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Defense Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.28 -6.87%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.15 +.64%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.05 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.27 +4.67%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +46.25%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -18.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +91.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.37 -.83%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 358.0 -.80%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.94 -3.82%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 227.75 -6.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.92 -7.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.73 +1.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.88 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.25 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.02 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.02% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 29.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.20 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.90 +1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 unch.
  • 82.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 83.5% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +87 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +141 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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