Monday, July 09, 2018

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Diminishing Trade War Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -4.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.08 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.49 +.96%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.45 -2.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +36.73%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -11.11%
  • NYSE Arms .74 +17.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.86 -2.55%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 389.0 -1.87%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.76 -2.97%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 236.75 -5.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.39 -4.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.44 -3.76%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.18 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 37.5 -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.07 +.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.95% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 29.25 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.10 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.30 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -30.70 +5.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +2.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
  • 83.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 84.1% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +113 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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