Monday, July 02, 2018

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.3 +.87%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.98 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.95 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.23 +4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69.o -25.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 -11.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.87 +42.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.21 +.76%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 402.0 +1.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.16 +2.44%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 234.75 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.50 +3.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.16 +.38%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.88 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 41.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.13 -.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.92% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 31.75 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.18 USD/Metric Tonne +.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.50 +10.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.40 +8.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.20 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +2.0 basis points
  • 78.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 79.5% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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