Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Trade War Concerns, Yen Weakness, Energy/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.84 +1.18%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.0 +.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.56 +.95%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.88 +3.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +8.57%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +9.89%
  • NYSE Arms .82 +9.81%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.19 -.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 383.0 -1.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.02 -.92%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 235.25 -1.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.50 +.76%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.83 +.93%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.26 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.25 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.15 +.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.97% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 28.25 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.90 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.70 -6.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.70 +1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point
  • 86.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 86.9% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +64 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -108 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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