Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Positive Earnings Outlooks, Diminishing Trade War Fears, Oil Gain, Commodity/Pharma Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 +1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.21 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.13 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.55 +7.34%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 -44.6%
  • Total Put/Call .88 +6.64%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -16.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.86 -1.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 376.0 -.70%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.17 -3.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.0 +5.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.45 -1.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.60 +1.38%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.67 +.75%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.50 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 35.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.58 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.99% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 31.5 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.77 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.10 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.50 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.40 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 unch.
  • 91.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 91.8% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +144 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -22 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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