Monday, July 23, 2018

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Diminishing Trade War Worries, Technical Buying, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +.08%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.66 -.21%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.24 +.99%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.84 -2.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +18.0%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -10.31%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -15.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.47 -.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 -.13%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.31 -1.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 223.25 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.68 -1.48%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.74 -.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.55 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.0 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.54 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.97% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 33.25 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.52 USD/Metric Tonne +.41%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.30 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.80 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.70 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  • 91.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 91.8% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +130 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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