Friday, September 20, 2019

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Worries, Earnings Concerns, Technical Selling, Tech/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +8.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.10 -.62%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.28 +.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.0 +6.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -14.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -10.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -33.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.12 (new series)
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 -1.59%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.19 (new series)
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.5 +5.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.2 (new series)
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.29 +1.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.67 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -4.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.75 +1.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +6.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.61 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .04 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 89.75 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.70 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.40 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.3 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62 +2.0 basis points
  • 65.3% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 76.9% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -139 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -127 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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