Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Trade Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Oil Decline, Biotech/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.3 +7.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.72 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.85 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.11 +4.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 +18.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.14 -6.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 +54.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.34 +2.22%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 425.0 +1.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.19 +2.83%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.25 -8.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.28 -.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 214.27 -1.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.11 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.94 +.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.95% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .01 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.55%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.4 -5.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.40 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.1 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -75 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/retail/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

No comments: