Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.06%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -1.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 -6.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.58 +.18: Growth Rate +12.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.52 +.18: Growth Rate +24.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 57.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9% -1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (-6.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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