Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.19%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% +3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.19% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.5 +.4 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -1.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.3 -1.2 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.82 +.39: Growth Rate +13.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 472.34 +.58: Growth Rate +25.8% +.8 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +11.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% +1.3 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.2% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 47.7%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -199 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorsts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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