Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Fears, Economic Optimism, Less Emerging Markets Currency/Debt Angst, Biotech/Road&Rail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.84 -6.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.32 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.77 -.93%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.76 -.03%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +50.0%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -.10%
  • NYSE Arms .66 +.35%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.28 -.51%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 400.0 +.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.91 -.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 231.0 -7.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.11 +1.10%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.49 +.02%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.77 -.25%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.50 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.90 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.16% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 24.75 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.72 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 +9.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.90 -8.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.70 +6.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13+2.0 basis points
  • 98.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 99.7% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +305 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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